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Third Karabakh War Inevitable: Paris and Yerevan cross Azerbaijan's 'Red Line'-ANALYTICS

22 June 2024 15:54 (UTC +04:00)

The military-political situation in the South Caucasus is entering a new dangerous stage. The 44-day Patriotic War in 2020, the September battles in 2022, and the anti-terrorist operation of Azerbaijan in September 2023 on its sovereign territory - in Karabakh, finally led to the eradication of separatism in the region, Armenia's renunciation of territorial claims to Azerbaijan, and increased hope for the signing of a peace treaty that will end the conflict between the two countries.

But, as before, the Armenian leadership, having failed to achieve results from its successive defeats in the military and diplomatic spheres, began to show a non-constructive approach to the conditions created for signing a peace treaty.

This non-constructiveness began with the delay in Armenia's response to the proposals of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry for peace between the two countries.

At international events, there were unfounded statements about alleged “ethnic cleansing” carried out by Azerbaijan in Karabakh, attempts to include a clause on the rights of the Armenian residents of Karabakh in the text of the peace treaty to be signed between the two countries, a clear violation of the clause on the opening of the Zangezur corridor of the trilateral agreement signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia.

Despite the fact that the revanchist forces of the Armenian authorities played the main role in these steps, countries outside the region also had a hand in this, in particular France. France, which still has the shameful status of a neocolonial state in the 21st century, is striving to play its provocative role on a global scale, in the processes in the South Caucasus region.

Knowing that Armenia's political course of distancing itself from Russia provides a geopolitical opportunity to increase its influence in the region, Paris has taken consistent steps over the past period to strengthen its influence in this country, militarize the South Caucasus, and distance Armenia from peace negotiations.

The pro-Armenian Macron government, which has always been distinguished by its biased position towards Azerbaijan, is trying to transfer to the South Caucasus the adventuristic policy pursued in different parts of the planet - Oceania, Africa, and South America. To do this, it uses the Armenian government as an instrument, which is constantly looking for a patron, preparing it for a third Karabakh war.

And the Pashinyan government, whose political vision is at zero level, weak-willed, and easily manipulated, willingly plays the role of an instrument, an outpost of Paris in the South Caucasus. The fact that Armenia wants a third Karabakh war and is preparing for it with the help of France and other global players is evidenced by the latest steps of official Yerevan, the expansion of the arsenal of weapons.

Since 2020, Armenia has also been closely cooperating with its new military partner, France, purchasing the Akash air defense system worth hundreds of millions of dollars, ATAGS and MArG 155 self-propelled howitzers, Pinaka multiple launch rocket systems, Konkurs anti-tank missiles, etc. from India. In addition, France, the main sponsor of the escalation, has sold Armenia various types of weapons in recent years. France signed an agreement with official Yerevan in October last year on the sale of 3 GM200 radars, 50 Bastion armored vehicles. The agreement also contained a clause on the further acquisition of Mistral short-range air defense systems.

Official Paris claimed that the military equipment supplied to Armenia was defensive and described this agreement as support for strengthening the country's security. However, the agreement signed by France on June 19 of this year on the supply of 36 SEZAR self-propelled howitzers to Armenia revealed another lie by Paris and Yerevan. Following this, synchronously, as a result of a "coincidence", it turned out that about 100 famous people in France appealed to President Emmanuel Macron with a request to send French armed forces to Armenia, the appeal contained a call for sending French troops to Armenia under the guise of a "peacekeeping contingent". Obviously, this information flow was made in accordance with the agreement between Paris and Yerevan to prepare for the arrival of French forces in the country. Thus, without taking into account the interests and position of the main country of the South Caucasus – Azerbaijan – the sale of French SEZAR offensive howitzers to Armenia and the subsequent preparation for the deployment of French troops in the government creates a threat primarily to Azerbaijan, bringing the military-political situation in the region to the limit of a large-scale war.

The fact that Azerbaijani lands have been under occupation for many years, and international law and norms have been violated, makes Armenia's steps towards mass armament, especially the acquisition of offensive weapons, illegitimate in this context. Aggression against the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, contrary to the Alma-Ata Declaration, which official Yerevan repeatedly refers to today, the unwillingness to change the Constitution of Armenia, which directly refers to the Act of Independence calling for the "unification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh", gives Azerbaijan the right to feel threatened, to take preventive steps on its territory against the armament of Armenia.

Azerbaijan has repeatedly warned Armenia at the highest level to refuse the purchase of lethal weapons and the militarization of the region. In an interview with local TV channels on January 10, 2024, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also openly spoke about the mass armament of Armenia and the steps that will be taken in the event of a threat against Azerbaijan:

"The process of building our army will continue. Armenia must know that no matter how many weapons it buys, no matter how it is supported, any source of threat to us will be immediately destroyed. I do not hide this so that tomorrow no one will say that something unexpected has happened. Let everyone hear that if we discover a real threat to ourselves, and not this French junk, not these tin cans called "Bastion", then we will immediately take preventive measures to destroy them."

As you can see, official Baku is not interested in escalation with Armenia, it is taking preventive steps to prevent this from happening. But it is clear that Nikol Pashinyan's government is acting under the dictation of third countries, specifically France, poisoning the current favorable situation for signing a peace treaty, and is inclined to military provocations.

But no one should forget that official Baku will not calmly watch as Armenia, which wants to unleash a new Karabakh war in the region, continues its line of militarization, and acquires deadly weapons. Armenia and its new master France should not forget that Azerbaijan has all the military-technical means for the precise destruction and neutralization of any military target throughout the territory of this country.

Azerbaijan will never recognize the possibility of changing the military balance of Armenia and will decisively respond to all provocations. Official Yerevan should not forget this fact, as well as the fact that the next military conflict may already call into question the existence of Armenia as a state.