Since the end of April 2025, geopolitical and military tensions between India and Pakistan have entered a dangerous escalation phase. Following the incident on April 22 in the Pahalgam region of Jammu and Kashmir, which is under India's control, the rhetoric of official New Delhi rapidly transformed into military operations, leading to a severe disruption of stability in the region.
On May 7, a missile strike carried out by the Indian Armed Forces against Pakistan’s sovereign territory was a practical manifestation of this provocative rhetoric. The missile strikes, lasting several hours, damaged civilian infrastructure and resulted in casualties among the civilian population. Immediately after this action, large-scale civil defense drills were launched within India, 21 major airports were closed to civilian flights, and planned power outages were implemented in the capital, New Delhi. These measures indicate that India has effectively entered a war preparedness regime, and its strategic intentions have a military-political character.
India has taken a course of war
Pakistani international affairs analyst Tarique Siyal said in an interview with APA that, following the Pahalgam incident, while official Islamabad proposed an international investigation, India escalated the military situation and paved the way for war by resorting to war rhetoric.
"Immediately after the Pahalgam incident, India issued harsh accusations and threats against Pakistan. These statements were made without any concrete evidence. Pakistan, on the other hand, proposed an objective and transparent investigation under international supervision regarding the incident. After the attack, India’s rhetoric became even more aggressive. The airstrike carried out by India last night, while expected by Pakistan, signified that military escalation in the region has entered a new phase. Pakistan's National Security Committee held an emergency meeting and made a decision to defend the country’s legitimate right to self-defense against this act of aggression directed to its sovereignty. The committee also mandated the Armed Forces to respond to India’s military provocations. Additionally, India’s diplomatic representative in Islamabad was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and an official protest was lodged," he added.
According to Siyal, India’s attacks on the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project and other civilian infrastructure demonstrate that it is applying its hybrid warfare concept: “Pakistan’s Minister of Information Technology accused India of organizing the recent cyberattacks. According to defense sources, Pakistan shot down at least five Indian fighter jets during airstrikes and neutralized several enemy positions along the Line of Control (LoC). The National Command Authority, which oversees Pakistan’s nuclear strategy, is implementing the ‘Full-Spectrum Deterrence’ strategy against India’s ‘Cold Start Doctrine.’ This is a balanced military-political doctrine aimed at preventing full-scale warfare in the region. Continuous tension between the parties is not beneficial either for regional stability or for the national security and economic interests of the parties involved.”
India hits civilian targets
Another international relations expert from Pakistan, Khalid Taimur Akram, told APA that the strikes India carried out on Pakistani territory as part of the "Sindoor Operation," which resulted in the deaths of dozens of civilians and the targeting of civilian objects, including mosques, show that this military operation was not merely a retaliatory measure: "This is a provocative strategic move that increases tensions in the region and leads to a humanitarian catastrophe. India's strikes under the 'Sindoor Operation' have reignited a crisis with dangerous escalation potential in South Asia. As a result of the strikes, 26 civilians, including women and children, lost their lives, and over 40 people were injured, highlighting the scale and humanitarian consequences of the incident. The targeting of mosques and residential areas in Bahawalpur, as well as other civilian infrastructure, indicates that India carried out this operation as a provocative strategic military move. While New Delhi presented the operation as a response to a terrorist attack in India, Islamabad views it as a direct act of aggression against its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Pakistan considers this military intervention a violation of international law, warning that it could have serious consequences for both regional stability and nuclear balance. The most dangerous aspect of the situation is that this action by India significantly increases the risk of confrontation between two nuclear-armed countries."
Taimur Akram stated that, unlike India, Pakistan expresses its position in a measured way, both militarily and diplomatically.
“Islamabad, on the one hand, keeps its military forces at a high level of readiness to ensure the country’s security, while, on the other hand, it brings India’s aggressive actions to the international agenda through diplomatic channels. This approach reflects Pakistan’s wise and strategically restrained policy. At the same time, Pakistan declares that India’s actions are aimed at achieving internal political goals. Strengthening nationalist rhetoric ahead of elections and presenting Pakistan as a foreign enemy to divert attention from economic and social problems is a tactic India has repeatedly used in the past. This undermines sustained peace and cooperation in the region. Pakistan demonstrates a position in favor of peace but without compromising its sovereignty and security. In its foreign policy, Pakistan continues to strengthen cooperation with China, Türkiye, and Gulf countries while keeping the Kashmir issue on the international agenda through platforms like the UN and OIC. Pakistan aims to strengthen its military readiness by increasing investment in its defense industry and maintaining superiority in electronic warfare and satellite technologies. These events once again demonstrate that sustained peace in the region can only be built on justice, respect for international law, and mutual trust. Pakistan’s position should be seen as an example of responsible state behavior in difficult circumstances,” the expert emphasized.
The world is worried about the India-Pakistan conflict
The ongoing situation has caused serious concern among global powers. Iran has expressed its concern over the increasing escalation on the India-Pakistan front, while U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed mediation between the two sides.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called on both countries to show “maximum military restraint.” The Secretary-General expressed serious concern over India’s operations across the Line of Control and international borders, stating that the world cannot afford a military clash between India and Pakistan.
With the increasing tension between India and Pakistan, Azerbaijan has also expressed its concern.
Tensions in South Asia are having a global impact
Vusal Guliyev, an expert on East Asia at the Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), stated in an interview with APA that if a military conflict between the two countries escalates into war, it could cause disruptions at various stages of the supply chain.
"If tensions rise, delays or disruptions in logistics routes dependent on South Asia are expected. Damage to port infrastructure, closure of maritime routes, or increased insurance costs could complicate the cargo transportation process. All of this could trigger problems in global food supply. In such a situation, coordinated action by the international community is crucial. Both humanitarian aid mechanisms being ready and ensuring that food trade channels remain open requires global cooperation. The steps taken, as well as a peaceful resolution to the conflict, will help prevent panic in global markets and safeguard food access for millions of people," Vusal Guliyev added.
Risk of threat to food supply
According to him, the current military tension between India and Pakistan poses a significant challenge to the global food system: "Rising tensions are already starting to show their impact on global food markets. The risk of war in these countries, which are among the largest rice exporters in the world, directly threatens global food security. India and Pakistan play a key role in the global food market. In particular, India has become the largest rice exporter in recent years. Currently, about 40% of global rice exports come from India. Pakistan is also considered the fourth-largest rice exporter in the world, holding a 35% share in the aromatic Basmati rice market (second after India). In other words, nearly half of the rice exported globally comes from these two countries. This statistical data supports the idea that any serious crisis in India and Pakistan will directly impact global food supply and prices. A disruption in exports from India and Pakistan could create a risk of food shortages in many importing countries. For example, Malaysia imports up to 40% of its rice from India and Pakistan, and officials have stated that the political and economic stability of these countries is critical to Malaysia's food security. If the conflict deepens, not only rice but also other essential food products could become more expensive globally. As a direct consequence, prices will rise, and supply disruptions will occur. These processes indicate that a new wave of food inflation is expected to emerge in global markets."
Farid Azeri
Elnur Babayev
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