The terrorist attack that occurred on April 22 in the Kashmir region under India's administrative control, which resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians, has led to renewed tensions between India and Pakistan. Following the attack, India accused Pakistan of having ties to the incident, further escalating tensions in the region.
Mutual accusations
Indian officials claim that the attack was carried out by terrorists supported by Pakistan. Pakistan, however, firmly rejects these allegations. The Pakistani government argues that India is using the terror attack to cover up its internal issues and to portray Pakistan as guilty in front of the international community. Pakistan highlights that India's policies and its repressive military operations in Kashmir have fueled terrorism and violence, and stresses that the terrorist incidents are a result of India's harsh treatment of the people in the Kashmir region under its occupation.
Pakistan calls on the international community to adopt an objective approach to India's accusations and to seriously assess the efforts of both countries in combating terrorism. Pakistan emphasizes the importance of using both legal and diplomatic means to prevent terrorism, stating that the fight against terrorism must not only be military but should also address economic, social, and political issues within the framework of international law.
Regional stability is at risk
Tarique Siyal, International Affairs Analyst and Ph.D Scholar at American Study Centre, Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, told APA that the recent tensions between the two countries, in the context of the attack in Kashmir, pose a serious threat to regional stability and the future of relations between neighboring countries possessing nuclear weapons.
"Relations between India and Pakistan in South Asia are once again facing a serious test. An attack in the Kashmir region under India's control, which resulted in the death of 26 people, has once again disrupted the fragile stability between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Official New Delhi has directly blamed Pakistan for the attack, claiming that Islamabad is behind the provocation. Such incidents once again show how deep the chronic mutual accusations and distrust in the region have become. Immediately after the incident, the Indian side took a number of political, diplomatic, and economic measures. The closure of a border crossing point, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (The Indus Waters Treaty is an international agreement signed between India and Pakistan in 1960, regulating the sharing of water resources of the Indus River and its tributaries - editor's note), and the expulsion of Pakistani diplomats are among the harshest examples of these measures. Especially, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, which had been in force since 1960, shows that India has this time elevated the situation to a more strategic level compared to previous tensions. The statement by Defense Minister Rajnath Singh that ‘those who hide behind a curtain will also be punished’ demonstrates the firmness of the military and political resolve on this issue," said the Pakistani political analyst.
Conflict in South Asia: The clash of political rhetoric and strategic interests
According to the political analyst, Pakistan, rejecting India's accusations, favors resolving the issue through diplomatic channels: "At the same time, Pakistan’s countermeasures were not delayed. Decisions made during the emergency meeting of the National Security Committee — including banning Indian airlines from using Pakistani airspace, suspending trade cooperation, closing the Wagah border, and downgrading diplomatic relations — indicate that both countries have chosen a course of confrontation. Pakistan's declaration that any interference with its water resources would be considered an ‘act of war’ shows just how dangerously tense the situation has become. This tension is not limited to the deterioration of relations between the two countries alone. The future of regional energy, security, and trade projects is also being put into question. Moreover, such tensions could influence the stance and strategic interests of international actors, especially countries like the United States, China, and Russia, toward the region. The long-standing confrontation between India and Pakistan is not only fueled by specific incidents but also by a general crisis of trust. This crisis is further deepened by internal political motivations on both sides. In countries approaching elections, populist rhetoric and hardline political decisions often overshadow real security needs. As a result, the current situation suggests that the two nuclear-armed nations are once again approaching the brink of armed conflict. Such a scenario would be undesirable for both regional and global stability. In this context, the activation of international mediators and the restoration of diplomatic dialogue seem increasingly necessary."
The risk of nuclear war between India and Pakistan
Touching on Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif's warning that the conflict with India could escalate into a nuclear confrontation, Tarique Siyal noted that given the historically hostile relations between the two countries, a nuclear war cannot be ruled out.
"On September 5, 2013, Pakistan’s National Command Authority (NCA), the supreme body overseeing nuclear matters, decided to adhere to the Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) policy to deter external threats. This policy was implemented in response to India’s 'Cold Start Doctrine' (CSD). The CSD envisions India conducting a limited conventional war against Pakistan and attempting to do so under a nuclear threshold.
The FSD policy allows Pakistan to use tactical mini-nuclear weapons instead of strategic nuclear arms. This approach envisions a limited nuclear war or the gradual escalation of a nuclear conflict, thereby lowering the nuclear threshold. Whenever relations between the two states intensify, Pakistan and India approach the brink of war, but the threat of nuclear conflict often prevents the escalation into full-scale warfare," the analyst emphasized.
India's war rhetoric
India's baseless accusations against Pakistan and its resort to war rhetoric are further increasing tensions in the region. Such an approach aligns neither with international law nor with sound diplomatic principles. Actions like cutting off the Indus River's water supply and expelling diplomats jeopardize regional stability. Choosing threats and pressure instead of resolving conflicts through dialogue raises the risk of a new confrontation in South Asia. Through such behavior, India is targeting not only Pakistan but the security of the entire region.
According to the Pakistani political analyst, the "Resistance Front," an obscure armed group that emerged in the region in 2019, has claimed responsibility for the attack: "India, however, alleges — without providing any evidence — that the attack was organized by Pakistan. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has rejected India's claims. At the same time, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and National Security Council have also opposed India's accusations. Pakistan, for its part, has been blaming India and Afghanistan for the recent surge in terrorist incidents. Pakistan openly states that its military forces are prepared for any threat. In my view, both countries should refrain from mutual accusations and threats, show restraint, and build normal neighborly relations through dialogue."
India's accusation against Pakistan
The founder and CEO of the Usanas Foundation, a foreign policy think tank based in India, and an expert on strategic affairs, Dr. Abhinav Pandya, also shared his position with APA regarding the situation.
"Tensions between India and Pakistan have been ongoing for years. The main reason is terrorism supported by Pakistan. The proxy war conducted in Jammu and Kashmir over the past 30 years stands at the center of the confrontation between the two countries.
In 2019, the Indian government's decision to revoke Article 370 — abolishing Kashmir’s special status — was a serious geopolitical blow to Pakistan. Following this move, India launched large-scale operations against terrorist networks in the region. In response, Pakistan changed its tactics. Fighters with combat experience from Afghanistan were sent to Jammu and Kashmir. In the new wave of terrorism, non-Kashmiri Indians and tourists, particularly on religious grounds, have been targeted.
The killing of 26 tourists on April 22 is a clear manifestation of this policy. This act of terror is not only directed at India but also at regional stability. India will continue to respond to this threat in a principled and consistent manner," he stated.
India’s baseless accusations against Pakistan
India’s swift accusation of Pakistan — before determining which forces were actually behind the incident and without establishing a diplomatic dialogue between the two governments — raises serious political questions. This approach not only escalates tensions in the region but also demonstrates that diplomatic solutions are not being sought and that the real perpetrators are not being clearly exposed.
The Indian political analyst also commented on this matter: "We must admit that so far no serious investigation has been conducted regarding India's claim that Pakistan is behind this incident, and no argument has been provided proving Pakistan’s involvement. However, the situation is complex. The group that carried out this terrorist attack is the 'Resistance Force,' a terrorist organization that is an offshoot of 'Lashkar-e-Taiba.' 'Lashkar-e-Taiba' is primarily supported by Pakistan’s intelligence services and military. Therefore, the activities of such groups in Kashmir cannot occur without the approval of the senior leadership of the Pakistani army.
For this reason, India claims that Pakistan is behind this terrorist attack. New Delhi's reconsideration of the Indus Waters Treaty and the expulsion of Pakistani diplomats show how seriously the government is treating the issue."
Nuclear deterrence
India’s accusation against Pakistan regarding the recent attack and its escalation of war rhetoric, coupled with the Pakistani Foreign Minister’s statement that a nuclear war cannot be ruled out, have significantly increased the risk of conflict between the two countries.
Abhinav Pandya noted that if the current tension escalates into a full-scale military conflict, Pakistan would not be an easy opponent: "Pakistan has a highly trained, battle-hardened professional army. If tensions rise, this could pose serious challenges for India. Moreover, both countries possess nuclear capabilities. Pakistan holds tactical nuclear weapons, and its nuclear doctrine clearly states that if its existence is threatened, it may use these weapons against enemy forces. This makes the potential scale and consequences of the conflict even more dangerous. Nuclear deterrence helps prevent further escalation. Historically, global powers have feared a nuclear war between these two nuclear-armed nations. Interestingly, despite intense rivalries and frequent tensions, both countries have never crossed the nuclear threshold. However, this possibility cannot be entirely ruled out for the future. India is recognized as a responsible nuclear power because it is governed by publicly elected representatives. In contrast, Pakistan's military dominance creates a different situation. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine acknowledges the potential use of nuclear weapons in the face of threats. Furthermore, the strengthening of radical jihadist groups raises concerns that some generals or radical elements might be tempted to use nuclear weapons against India. In Pakistan’s foreign policy, rationality does not always play the primary role; religious motives and fanaticism sometimes prevail. It has been observed that after acquiring nuclear weapons, Pakistan engaged in more aggressive terror operations, believing their nuclear capability provided them with greater freedom against India. For instance, India’s lack of response to the 2008 Mumbai attacks was largely due to the nuclear threat. However, following the Pulwama attack in 2019, India launched an operation against the Balakot camp, breaking the perception of Pakistan’s nuclear shield. Nevertheless, the latest developments suggest that the risk of nuclear war between the two countries has grown."
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