"Azerbaijan’s foreign policy has been emboldened by its latest victory in the conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh," said Fitch Solutions, a company belonging to the Fitch Group on the country-related forecast, APA reports.
It was noted that though formerly pursuing a multi-vector approach, Azerbaijan will seek greater influence in the South Caucasus region, particularly in dominating trade routes.
FS analysts believe that Azerbaijan’s foreign policy is likely to remain multi-vector, balancing strategic autonomy with pragmatic partnerships: "Relations with Turkiye have deepened significantly, underpinned by shared ethnic and cultural ties and reinforced through military cooperation. At the same time, Azerbaijan has positioned itself as a key energy supplier to Europe, leveraging its role in the Southern Gas Corridor to enhance its geopolitical relevance. This energy diplomacy has allowed Baku to cultivate stronger ties with the EU, particularly as Europe seeks to reduce dependence on Russian gas."
In addition it was noted that Azerbaijan’s relationship with Russia is expected to remain complex and transactional. While recent tensions, such as the accidental downing of an Azerbaijani aircraft and the deaths of Azeri nationals in Russian custody, have strained bilateral ties, a complete rupture is unlikely. Moscow’s muted response to Baku’s retaliatory measures — which have included diplomatic demarches and restrictions on Russian-linked businesses — suggests a recalibration rather than a breakdown.
"Azerbaijan is likely to continue leveraging its strategic position between East and West to maintain a degree of independence from Russian influence, while still engaging selectively where interests align. This balancing act will be central to Baku’s foreign policy as it navigates a shifting regional order and seeks to consolidate its post-conflict gains," says the forecast by FS.
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