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What will happen in Georgia ? - ANALYSIS

What will happen in Georgia ? - <font color=red>ANALYSIS</font>

16 October 2012 10:23 (UTC +04:00)

Baku. Farhad Mehdiyev- Exclusively for APA. One of the important events of 2012 is the defeat of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashviliâ€™s United National Movement party by Bidzina Ivanishviliâ€™s Georgian Dream Coalition in the parliamentary elections.

While the Georgian Dream Coalition got 87 seats gaining 54. 85 % of votes, the United National Movement party, with its 40.43% votes could gain only 67 seats in the 150-seat Georgian Parliament. According to article 81 of the Georgian Constitution, the Prime Minister to be appointed by the President and the Cabinet must get a vote of confidence in the parliament. It means that the Georgian government will be determined by Georgian Dream. More exactly, it has already determined the government.
Though Ivanishvili have repeatedly vowed fidelity to NATO and West, the West is concerned over Ivanishviliâ€™s past connected with Russia.
At the same time these elections set Georgiaâ€™s future way of ruling, policy and visions as Georgia will switch to the system of parliamentary republic.
Ivanishvili is said to have a wealth of more than 4 billion dollars. And he has earned his $4 bln in cold Russia, the coldest for Georgia.
Ivanishvili gained this wealth in 2000-2008 during Putinâ€™s presidency. It was then, when many big business oligarchs were forcibly or voluntarily leaving Russia. Ivanishvili, who at that time was on the way to get the status of billionaire without any obstacles, suddenly sold his property in Russia in autumn, 2011 and made his way towards Georgia. Just then, he declared his wish to participate in 2012 Parliamentary Elections in Georgia.
Now the main question is: Will Ivanishvili turn Georgia from West towards Russia? Will he step back from integration into NATO and EU? This question is urgent and important not only for West but also Azerbaijan. But what is more important for us is: What role will Georgia play in relations between Russia and neighboring and enemy Armenia? How will Georgia behave in case of war between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

Will it be a corridor between Armenia and its supporter Russia ?
â€¦.Georgia is a small and poor country in terms of population, area and natural resources. But Georgia is a door of Caucasus to the West, at the same time it is a gateway to the sea for the Trans-Caspian countries. Therefore, Georgia is an opportunity to enter the region and move there. The main energy, transport and communication projects are being implemented through Georgia. West knows very well that if Russia gains authority in Georgia, its opportunities for domination in the region will increase.
On the eve of the elections, Ivanishvili promised Georgian people to establish normal relations with Russia during his rule. Undeniable role of this promise in Ivanishviliâ€™s victory is clear, because Saakashvili didnâ€™t say it.

It is impossible to manage without pursuing prudent policy with neighboring powerful country like Russia. To ignore Russia in the region is a irrational approach. Saakashviliâ€™s â€œaggressive Russian policyâ€ has a great role in his defeat.

Ivanishvili has also expressed his desire to join NATO and closely integrate into the West. One could see the NATO flags in his blocâ€™s demonstrations.

But these features are not so crucial to demonstrate that Ivanishvili is a real pro-western person. It would be better to regard Ivanishviliâ€™s statements on West as a challenge to the electorate satisfied with Saakashviliâ€™s pro-western policy, but protesting his domestic policy.
A certain part of the electorate in Georgia is far from loving Russia, which issues Russian passports to the people of Abkhazia and Ossetia. The Ivanisviliâ€™s government will not be able to make people love the country, which recognizes their two separate areas as â€œindependent statesâ€. It can happen, if Russia gives up its claims regarding those areas and it is not real in the near future. For this reason, Ivanishviliâ€™s pro-Western statements seem aiming to get support from the internal electorate and West.

Ivanishvili said that he will pay his first visit to the US and then to Azerbaijan. Yes, these two countries are close allies of Georgia and actually its patrons. It has been so over the past 10 years.
Ivanishvilli intended to show that he is committed to the old course of foreign policy using such statements. Will it be so? The time will show itâ€¦
And not only thisâ€¦ Only time will show what else billionaire Ivanishvilli will make in this postâ€¦

In any case, itâ€™s predicted that Ivanishvilli wonâ€™t take steps which can dissatisfy the West within a year. The main reasons of such policy are to gain time to form his political team and the fact that Saakashvilli will be president till November 2013.
What will Saakashvilli do?

Saakashvilli has the right to dismiss the government and to nominate the candidate to the post of a new Prime Minster. Saakashvilli has the right to dissolve the Parliament if it does not approve this candidate for three times.

Saakashvilli will surely try to pursue Ivanishvilliâ€™s mistakes.
Georgian people expect Ivanishvilli to improve material and social situation in the country. Probably, Ivanishvilli will try to change the situation of the Georgian economy even if by means of his personal finance and will have positive achievements. In such a case the place of Saakashvilli is supposed to be in oppositionâ€¦