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American analyst Jeff Sahadeo: I have a difficult time seeing Azerbaijan as part of NATO unless relations between Russia and the west improve to the point that Russia itself is given some status in the organization

19 September 2011 12:10 (UTC +04:00)

Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia continue to rise and military spending continues to grow, he says, while talks over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh have stalled.

Also, he adds, the appetite for further conflict over Ossetia has cooled among the Georgian public, but the Putin/ Medvedev and Saakashvili regimes continue to carry on a war of words to the extent that some kind of minor violent border incident could flare into something larger.
In an interview with APAâ€™s Washington DC correspondent, assistant professor Sahadeo explains more.

- What are the main differences between the Russian and Western approaches to the independent republics created after the collapse of the Soviet Union?

- Russia still considers the region its â€œbackyardâ€ and, especially in the 2000s, has become determined to use its economic wealth to act as a regional hegemony. Cultural and political links from the Soviet period endure with the elites of some of these states, and migration to Russia from poorer republics plays a large role in the regional economy. Russia also sees the region as a critical market for its export goods, though it has trouble competing with China in this respect. The western approach, which focused first on the extension of NATO, has allowed the former Communist bloc states as well as the Baltic republics of the USSR to leave the Russian/ Soviet orbit. Western interests in the Caucasus and Central Asia focus primarily on energy, and to some extent security in the post 9/11 world. But efforts to engage the region politically have stalled: the 2005 massacre in Andijon spoiled relations between the Uzbek and American governments, while the Bush administration efforts to admit Georgia to NATO ended with the Russia-Georgia war, when most of Europe, afraid to lose Russian energy resources, proved willing not to lend support to the Saakashvili government, especially as it became known the Georgians also shared responsibility for the warâ€™s outbreak.

- What do you expect from the Karabakh negotiation process, how do you see the future of it? What kind of role can the west play in this process?

- Both the Azerbaijani and Armenian governments have left themselves little room for compromise in international negotiations. Proposals over returns of refugees and referenda stall continuously as each side only supports phrasing that is seen to aid their cause in retaining or regaining Karabakh. The complete lack of trust between the two governments, and their bellicose rhetoric towards the other, intended to build support among nationalist publics, leaves me quite pessimistic about progress. It is always better for dialogue to continue than not.

- What needs to happen in South Caucasus countries so that they better integrate into Euro-Atlantic structures? Where do you see the region in 10 years?

- Some type of resolution to these â€œfrozen conflictsâ€ will aid greatly in integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. One major issue here is Russia, and their desire not to â€œloseâ€ this region as they felt that they lost the Baltics. I doubt that the US and the West will risk a major rupture with Russia, so integrating the South Caucasus into Euro-Atlantic structures would require some degree of Russian assent. I could see a scenario whereby, in several years, Turkey is admitted to the EU and Georgia and perhaps the other Caucasus countries after that, which may be one path. Russia sees the EU as less threatening than NATO; and at this moment NATO has no strong incentive to expand.

- Azerbaijan is actively cooperating with NATO, but still isn’t its member. When do you think it will become a member, and will this ever happen, taking into consideration Russia’s tough reaction?

- I have a difficult time seeing Azerbaijan as part of NATO unless relations between Russia and the west improve to the point that Russia itself is given some status in the organization. That might be possible in a post-Putin world. If the US and Europe consider Azerbaijanâ€™s energy reserves to be durable, then that might become a further motivation to expand. But in the short term, there is no realistic way to see Azerbaijan becoming a member of NATO.

- What is the possibility of cooperation between Russia and US in the security sphere? What would be the role of Azerbaijan in that cooperation? Do you think that Gabala Radio Location Station is still on the countries’ agenda in terms of security cooperation?

- There is a possibility of superficial cooperation between the two, but the level of trust is minimal. Now that the US feels it has the upper hand on Al-Qaeda, there may be less desire to co-operate over terrorist threats. Russia has chosen to take its own path on countries like Iran and North Korea rather than co-operate with the US on these dangerous states. With the sniping continuing between Russia and the US over missile defense, I donâ€™t think Gabala or similar facilities will be places where the two will seek to co-operate.