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US analyst: â€œThere is much less possibility of Georgia or Azerbaijan joining NATOâ€

26 July 2010 14:26 (UTC +04:00)

- South Caucasus is still a hot topic in relationship between the US and Russia. In what way could the two countries co-operate in the region?

- Both Russia and the US want to cooperate. South Caucasia is an area of considerable conflicting interests between these two powers. The United States has pulled back a bit from its fairly expansionist policy of global hegemony during the Bush administration, so the door has opened a bit for better relations with Russia. Together the US and Russia could show their good will and the advantages of cooperation by solving one of the regional conflicts, perhaps the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Karabakh. It is time for some creative thinkingâ€¦ and compromise from all sides.

- But some analysts are still concerned about the regionâ€™s security questions which were violated during the Georgian war two years ago. Do you share those worries?

- In some ways the situation is provisionally stabilized. Russia has achieved more than it needed, and Georgia has to accept a fait accompli for the time being. The United States is urging caution, since it wants good relations with both Russia and Georgia. The wild card in the deck remains Mikhael Saakashvili, but even he seems to have other issues to deal with and is willing to wait. The situation contains great potential danger of exploding once again but probably not in the immediate future.

- What could the role of the Northern Alliance in the region? Do you think these countries should become members of NATO?

- Since the Russian-Georgian war there is much less possibility of Georgia or Azerbaijan joining NATO. With Russia prepared to move across the Caucasus, and the South Caucasian states being relatively weaker than Russia, it is unlikely that NATO would have a meaningful presence in the region. If NATO was imaginative, it would expand in one particular way â€“ make Russia a member! This way an alliance that was formed against the Soviet Union would turn into a collective security pact to deal with conflicts among its members.