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Analyst Kornely Kakachia: â€œWhile neither West nor Russia considers conflict in Caucasus crucial to their bilateral relationship they canâ€™t find common understandingâ€

22 July 2010 08:32 (UTC +04:00)

Speaking about the current security situation in the Caucasus region Mr. Kakachia pointed out that as Russian troops continue to hold positions 40 km from Tbilisi on Georgian territory that the Kremlin agreed to vacate as part of a formal cease-fire, leaving a basic condition of that agreement unfulfilled, Armenian-Azeri conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh gets even complicated.
â€œWhile neither West nor Russia considers conflict in Caucasus crucial to their bilateral relationship they canâ€™t find common understanding and mutual approach to stabilize South Caucasus. In this circumstances as long as these conflicts remain unresolved any small scale clash may spin out of control, thus leading to full fledged war between the conflicting sides. If international community really wants progress, prosperity and cooperation in the South Caucasus, they must attain the resolution of these conflicts to avoid catastrophic consequences for the regional security and not onlyâ€.
Mr. Kakachia believes that, notwithstanding pressure from Moscow NATOâ€™s priority is to continue engagement with Georgia, Azerbaijan, and other interested countries in the region in order to help them develop the military forces appropriate to their individual security needs.
â€œHowever in short term itâ€™s unlikely that Azerbaijan and Georgia become member of alliance as Obama administration has put NATO’s eastward expansion on the back burner. But in long run in case Azerbaijan and Georgia will continue internal reforms and pursue their commitments towards euro-Atlantic integration both countries fated to become members of alliance. In case of Azerbaijan establishment of similar structure as NATO-Georgia commission is could further push its bid for full membershipâ€, he added.
â€œWhile US seeks Russiaâ€™s cooperation on pressing U.S. foreign policy issues, such as Russian support for sanctions on Iran and transportation corridors to Afghanistan through Russian territory Moscow does not seem to change its hard stance on burning issues as de-occupation of Georgiaâ€™s territories and Russiaâ€™s self declared posture on â€œspecial privileged zonesâ€ in post-soviet space. Moreover, itâ€™s still unclear as how US could manage â€œwalking and chewing gumâ€ - as Hillary Clinton suggested and embrace Moscow at the same time. In case Washington and Moscow find â€œMagic formulaâ€ of cooperation on Post-Soviet space South Caucasus could potentially become good testing ground for transformation of regional security architectureâ€, he said.