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Pulitzer Prize-winner Daniel Yergin: We think by next year we certainly will have an average price of oil well above 50 dollar per barrel â€“ EXCLUSIVE

Pulitzer Prize-winner Daniel Yergin: We think by next year we certainly will have an average price of oil well above 50 dollar per barrel â€“ <font color=red>EXCLUSIVE </font>

21 May 2009 07:52 (UTC +04:00)

Profile. Daniel Yergin is the president of Cambridge Energy Research Associates operating in 16 countries. â€œThe Prizeâ€ by Daniel Yergin about the oil industry of the world was awarded Pulitzer Prize in 1992. 20 million people watched the documentary film basing on the book made by the US Public Television. This year â€œThe Prizeâ€ by Daniel Yergin has been published for the second time.

- How much attention is paid to the Caspian area in the second edition of â€œThe Prizeâ€?

-I touched upon this area actually. I particularly paid attention to the critical importance of BTC. BTC was very important for Azerbaijanâ€™s independence and development of the country. It connected Azerbaijan to the global market place. It also recognizes the strategic importance of Azerbaijan in the region and in the global energy market now.

For 10 year, we had big energy conferences in Istanbul where the focus year after year was on BTC. So BTC started off as a concept then the will power turned it into reality and the world takes it for granted now. But 10 years ago it couldnâ€™t be taken for granted.

Clearly, Heydar Aliyev had a vision for the importance of the pipeline. That vision was important to make it happened. Obviously, I think the U.S. government was also committed to the project. But Heydar Aliyev had a vision, will power and determination to see it through.

- Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan didnâ€™t sign up for the South Corridor in Prague summit. Will it delay the implementation of the gas projects like Nabucco?

-You see renewed interest in the gas lines. There are a lot of financial, political obstacles to over come but I think that as BTC was the main issue in 90s, next several yearsâ€™ big issue is going to be gas lines that connect the Central Asia and Caspian to Europe.

- What is your forecast for oil price in 2010?

-We really donâ€™t publish any specific forecast. But we think that as the world economy covers, it is expected that oil price recovers. We have two key questions now: first, how many oil and gas projects are postponed and secondly, how strong the timing of global economic recovery. Global GDP will be the prime determinant of the oil price. You canâ€™t predict oil price independently of the economy and I think right now people feel more optimistic that they were few months ago. Probably by 2010 we will be in recovery. I mean all stimulus money will start to impact on the economy. We think by next year we certainly will have an average price of oil well above 50 dollar per barrel.