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Sarkozy takes first poll lead after EU-bashing

13 March 2012 20:15 (UTC +04:00)

Baku-APA. President Nicolas Sarkozy overtook Socialist challenger Francois Hollande for the first time Tuesday in an opinion poll on the first round of France’s April-May election after attacking the European Union’s trade and immigration policies, APA reports quoting Reuters.

The poll showed that Sarkozy would still lose to Hollande in a second-round runoff, however, albeit by a narrower margin of nine points, down from 13 points a fortnight ago.

While it was too soon to predict a turnaround, Sarkozy’s progress showed he had struck a chord with voters with a threat he made Sunday to erect unilateral barriers to trade and immigration unless the EU took a tougher stand on those issues.

EU diplomats have largely dismissed his ultimatum, made during a rally near Paris, to toughen border controls and protect European companies, as campaign rhetoric. But it spoke directly to the far-right voters he needs to recruit to his camp.

"It’s logical there’s a poll reaction to the speech, and we may well see more surveys showing the same thing, but the situation is still much more positive for Hollande," said BNP Paribas economist Dominique Barbet.

"You can’t say it has turned around based on one poll, especially when there is still a nine point gap for the second round. Hollande’s second-round lead has been pretty steady."

Having trailed Hollande for months, the Ifop/Fiducial survey showed that Sarkozy had suddenly leapfrogged ahead of him. It put Sarkozy’s first-round score at 28.5 percent, up from 27 percent at the end of February, and ahead of Hollande, who slipped to 27 percent from 28.5 percent.

It found that Hollande had slipped two points to 54.5 percent for round two, while Sarkozy had gained two points at 45.5 percent.

"The game is changing. It’s getting tighter," said Ifop analyst Frederic Daby, noting Sarkozy’s challenge now is to keep adding far-right support without alienating centrists.

Hollande holds an advantage for the second round as more fringe voters say they would back him in a runoff than would back Sarkozy. But some still say they could change their minds.

"I hope the swallow we saw this morning will make the spring," Alain Minc, a longtime advisor to Sarkozy, told the Europe 1 radio station, citing an ancient Greek proverb popular in France.

The morale-boost for Sarkozy came as far-right leader Marine Le Pen, ranked third in polls, said she had secured the 500 official sponsors needed to enter the presidential contest within days of a Friday evening deadline.

A failure by Le Pen to gather enough signatures could have caused an upset, given her 16 percent support level.

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Sarkozy takes first poll lead after EU-bashing

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