Domestic

Home page

Domestic

Analysis: Official conclusion of Gabala Radar Diplomacy

19 September 2007 12:21 (UTC +04:00)

Even expertsâ€™ visit to Gabala Radar failed to alleviate the tension between US and Russia on the deployment of a new missile defense system in Eastern Europe. However, the travel removed uncertainties, made positions more clear. All the developments will certainly influence the United Statesâ€™ plans regarding Azerbaijan.

A team of US military experts assessing Gabala Radarâ€™s capability concluded that this radar will not take the place of the radars and interceptor in Czech Republic and Poland. This approach is an official â€œnoâ€ to Russiaâ€™s proposal to use the Gabala radar station as an alternative host for elements of a US missile defense system planned for central Europe. Actually itâ€™s absurd to think that US is unaware of Gabala Radarâ€™s potential. The visit to Gabala just aimed to wrap up the procedure of Gabala Radar Diplomacy initiated by Russia. Therefore, after consulting with head of the US delegation Patrick Oâ€™Reilly and other military experts, Director of US Missile Defense Agency Henry Oberingâ€™s statement doesnâ€™t come unexpected.
The US strategic plan embraces deployment of a missile shield complex in Eastern Europe, and Washingtonâ€™s main targets are not improve the missile shield system in Europe and to get Russia in this coverage as much as possible.
Against whom the radars and interceptors in Europe are targeted?
The missile defense system in Eastern Europe is against Iranian threat on tactical target (in the short run) and against Russian threat in strategic and prospective plan (in the long run).
Therefore, Russiaâ€™s proposal on the joint use of Gabala Radar aims not to assist Washington in forestalling Iranian threat, but to defuse threats against its own interests.
It is not difficult to forecast U.S. reaction. Therefore, we can say that the expertsâ€™ visit put an official end to Gabala Radar Diplomacy yesterday.
The United Statesâ€™ saying â€œnoâ€ after all the necessary procedure is beyond question here.
The only unexpected result of the visit is that US interest in Gabala Radar has further increased. The symptoms leaked out of American military expertsâ€™ statements.
American generals Henri Obering and Patrick Oâ€™Reilly stated that they want Gabala radar to be an element of US missile defense system and said that they have offered Russia these proposals.

The increase of US interest in Gabala radar is linked to technical capabilities and detecting coverage of the radar
The US can make use of this station to monitor the Near East.
Through the coverage of Gabala Radar, Washington intends to detect and track missiles but intercept the missiles by facilities in Eastern Europe.
Of course, there is very little possibility that Washington will make Gabala radar an element of its missile defense system as the radar is now rented by Russia.
Russia can refuse Gabala radar after the rent expires in 2012, Russian Space Troops official Vladimir Popovkin admitted.
Russia installs more modern radar (Armavir) along southern borders and will not need Gabala radar in the near future. Pentagon representatives now do not hide their wish to see Gabala radar as an element of their missile defense system. So, it is not ruled out that Azerbaijan will be of more importance for the US, as the period of the rent expires. /APA-ANALYTICS/