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Putin, not Medvedev, remains master of Russian foreign policy

08 May 2010 02:43 (UTC +04:00)

Baku â€“ APA. Two years after the inauguration of President Dmitry Medvedev, analysts say his powerful predecessor, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, still wields control over Russiaâ€™s foreign policy â€“ especially the Kremlinâ€™s efforts to reassert influence in the former Soviet Union, APA reports quoting eurasianet.org web-page.
Legally speaking, this should not be the case. Under the Russian Constitution, the president oversees foreign policy while the prime minister handles the economy and most domestic matters. But few Kremlin-watchers believe that Moscowâ€™s foreign policy is shaped by Medvedev, who took office on May 7, 2008, and is now marking the halfway point of his presidential term.
â€œThe leading role still clearly belongs to Putin. This reflects the unspoken agreement that was reached between Putin and Medvedev,â€ said Yevgeny Volk, an independent political analyst in Moscow.
â€œThere have been some nuances and accents that have changed since Medvedevâ€™s arrival. But these are mostly stylistic differences,â€ Volk added.
Medvedev regularly flies around the world to attend summits and international meetings in far-flung countries. But his role at such events is often ceremonial, while Putin, often working behind the scenes, appears to achieve the meatiest results. And that plays into the â€œgood cop, bad copâ€ pattern that has long characterized the two menâ€™s relationship: Medvedev, with his image as a liberal modernizer, is more palatable to the West, while Putin is the tough guy ready to play hardball to assert Russiaâ€™s interests.
On April 8, for instance, Medvedev was in Prague signing a nuclear disarmament treaty with US President Barack Obama -- a historic, though largely ceremonial event -- while Putin was in Moscow dealing with the rapidly unfolding crisis in Kyrgyzstan. On that day, Putin became the first foreign leader to call Roza Otunbayeva, the head of the new provisional government that took power after violent protests led to former president Kurmanbek Bakiyevâ€™s ouster. Putinâ€™s quick move advanced Russian interests in the strategically important Central Asian state, and he followed it up a few days later by pledging 50 million dollars in loans and aid to the Kyrgyz interim government.
â€œThere are strong economic levers in Putinâ€™s hands,â€ Volk said, describing loans and energy assistance as two of the prime ministerâ€™s key tools.
Putin was also a critical player in Moscowâ€™s other major foreign-policy triumph in April: the surprise agreement with Ukraine that allows Russia to maintain its Black Sea Fleet in Crimea for 25 more years. Kyiv offered the base extension in exchange for a 30-percent discount on its purchases of Russian natural gas. Though the agreement was signed by Medvedev and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, it came only after a flurry of meetings between Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Mykola Azarov.
â€œIn the latest Russian foreign-policy success with Ukraineâ€¦ I think there is little doubt that Putin is the central figure,â€ said Maria Lipman, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
â€œFormally, it is Medvedev who attends meetings at the presidential level. But de facto, the most important decisions in foreign policy are at the very least decided jointly, and I think it is possible that Putinâ€™s word carries more importance,â€ Lipman said.
The maneuverings of Russiaâ€™s ruling tandem have been especially convoluted when they have dealt with Moscowâ€™s arch-foe Georgia.
In August 2008, when Georgia attempted to retake control of the Moscow-backed separatist region of South Ossetia, it was Putin -- not Medvedev -- who gave the first public reaction, even though Putin was attending the Beijing Summer Olympics at the time. Later, as Russia started to deploy massive force against Georgia, Putin paid a dramatic visit to North Ossetia to meet soldiers and refugees, reinforcing his image as a man of action.
But it was Medvedev, as the commander-in-chief of the Russian military, who gave the formal order for the so-called â€œoperation to force peaceâ€ on Georgia, and who signed the ceasefire accord brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy that ended the five-day conflict.
Sergei Mikheyev, an analyst at the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow, argues that this elaborate two-man performance showed that Putin and Medvedev shape foreign policy jointly.
â€œSome roles were filled by Medvedev, others by Putin. To say that Putin or Medvedev decided anything by themselves would be naÃ¯ve,â€ Mikheyev said.
More recently, Putin opened a new front in Russiaâ€™s relations with Georgia by meeting a key leader of the Georgian opposition, former parliament speaker Nino Burjanadze, in early March. Burjanadze -- a fierce critic of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili -- had a friendly meeting with Putin, who does not disguise his hatred for the pro-Western Saakashvili these days.
â€œRussia is trying to find people to talk to in Georgia other than Saakashvili, and Burjanadze is one such person,â€ Mikheyev said.