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IMF: Rising geopolitical tensions could push up oil prices

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF Economic Advisor and Director of the Research Department

19 January 2026 15:09 (UTC +04:00)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the supply in the oil market will remain at a high level in 2026, and this factor will cause a gradual decline in prices, said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, APA-Economics reports.

According to him, a decrease in oil prices was observed over the past year, and the presence of sufficient supply in the market continues this trend. According to the IMF's base scenario, oil prices are expected to gradually decrease in 2026.

"According to the Fund's assessment, the possibilities for increasing production in Venezuela are limited due to the existing infrastructure. Iran exports about 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, which is about 1.5 percent of global consumption. Possible interruptions in oil exports from Iran could have an upward impact on prices," the IMF department director emphasized.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas also added that in the event of increased geopolitical tensions in the region and disruptions in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, this could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices.

Recall that the IMF predicted the average price of a barrel of oil at $62.13 this year and $62.17 in 2027.