“Global oil supply is expected to continue exceeding demand in 2026, which could put downward pressure on oil prices," said the international rating agency Fitch Ratings, APA-Economics reports.
Fitch forecasts that the average price of Brent crude oil will fall to 63 US dollars per barrel in 2026. For comparison, the average price is estimated at 69 dollars per barrel in 2025.
According to the agency, global oil production increased significantly in 2025, and this growth is expected to continue in 2026. Oil production is rising faster than demand both in OPEC+ countries and in non-OPEC+ producers.
Fitch notes that growth in oil demand has weakened. This is attributed to a slowdown in global economic growth, improvements in energy efficiency, an increase in the number of electric vehicles, and weakness in the petrochemical sector.
The agency also points out that oil inventories accumulated toward the end of 2025 could flow into storage facilities in 2026. Rising inventories, especially in major markets such as the United States and Europe, could further contribute to declining prices.
According to Fitch’s assessment, the oil market is likely to remain in surplus under current conditions, which will force companies to cut costs and plan investments more cautiously.
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