Fitch Ratings has raised its forecasts for natural gas prices in Europe for 2026–2027 due to disruptions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from Qatar through the Strait of Hormuz, “APA-Economics” reports.
The rating agency assumes that the Strait of Hormuz will begin reopening around July.
According to Fitch’s assessment, restrictions on Qatar’s LNG exports during this period will keep prices high at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe’s main gas benchmark.
The agency believes that even if the strait reopens in July, tensions in the European gas market will continue until the end of 2026.
The rating agency raised its TTF price forecast for 2026 from $424 to $495 per 1,000 cubic meters, and for 2027 from $247 to $318 per 1,000 cubic meters.
At the same time, Fitch left unchanged its price forecast for Henry Hub, the main US gas benchmark. The agency explained this by limited additional LNG liquefaction capacity in the United States and the inability of local producers to fully benefit from higher gas prices in other regions.
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