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Ian Lesser: House of Representativesâ€™ decision not to serious disruption in US-Turkish relations

10 March 2010 03:46 (UTC +04:00)

Washington. Isabel Levine â€“ APA. Ian Lesser, former member of the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff at the US Department of State, where his portfolio included southern Europe and Turkey believes that the decision of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives on â€œArmenian genocideâ€ is unlikely to materially affect the prospects for conflict resolution on multiple fronts in the Caucasus and Black Sea region.

â€œI do not expect this to lead to serious disruption in US-Turkish relations, at least at this pointâ€, Mr. Lesser, who currently is senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fond in US Capital told APAâ€™s Washington correspondent.

According to him, the committee vote was not unexpected: â€œIt has happened before. In fact, the vote in committee was closer than some might have predictedâ€.

Speaking about the future influences of the US Congress Committeeâ€™s decision, Mr. Lesser stressed that, in strategic terms, Turkey’s position on Iran nuclear issues and a likely vote in the UNSC is a more important test.

â€œIn my view, the stakes and policies of regional actors -- Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia are the key drivers rather than the actions of external powers. If the parties are willing to take risks for resolution, there will be progress. If not, notâ€ â€“ he added.

Another analyst, Marko Papic from STRATFOR notices to APAâ€™s Washington correspondent that, the decision of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives on â€œArmenian genocideâ€ has harmed U.S. - Turkish relations, mainly because a more assertive and independent Ankara is not taking this resolution lightlyâ€

He pointed out that, Turkish opposition is also using this as a way to criticize the government and put pressure on Erdogan, calling for him to cancel his visit to the U.S. in April.

However, according to Mr. Papic, this is not the first time the House Foreign Affairs Committee passed such a non-binding measures and it still requires the rest of the House of Representatives to vote.

â€œThe U.S. President, however, has made it clear that he will work to block the resolution in the House, which is actually a change from his campaign promise in 2008. Therefore, we expect the vote to create a stir in Turkish-American relations in the short term, but in the medium/long term the U.S. executive will be able to block the move. It will be interesting to see how Turkey interprets U.S. President Barack Obama’s change in policy towards the genocide issue. They may very well interpret it as a clear sign that U.S. is bending to Turkish demands, which it is, and that it is yet another sign of Ankara’s rising power. Turkey would not be wrong in either of those assessments. The question is whether that will encourage Turkey to be even bolder in its foreign policyâ€.

Answering the question, if there could be any negative impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh process after the decision of US congressmen, STRATFOR analyst mentioned that Turkey would likely scuttle the Turkish-Armenian process, which would of course then also have negative repercussions for the Nagorno-Karabakh process. â€œHowever, the likelihood that the resolution comes to full vote before the House is unlikely and therefore not something that at this point one should extrapolate fromâ€.