The progress in the process of normalizing Russian-American relations, and at an accelerated pace, and the unexpectedly rude and instructive statements by US Vice President Vence to European leaders literally shook up the political field of Europe. Few expected such a turn of events, and yet, what happened forced many centers to “sober up” and begin preparing fateful decisions.
The summit of European leaders ended without results
As is known, on February 17, the leaders of 11 European countries met in Paris to discuss Russia's invasion of Ukraine and to strengthen their common position in the context of the acceleration of the peace process promoted by US President Donald Trump. The US has already made it clear to Brussels that the EU will not have a place at the negotiating table. In fact, this unexpected, even somewhat adventurous step shook the balance of Europe and gave impetus to demonstrating a unified position on this issue. True, the emergency summit of EU leaders did not make any decisions on Ukraine, although there were quite bold proposals regarding the sending of troops, the allocation of hundreds of billions of dollars for the purchase of weapons for the Ukrainian army.
But this article will not talk about the overseas slap in the face of Europe, the main focus will be on China's reaction to the hasty efforts on the American-Russian track. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in his usual diplomatic manner, welcomed the negotiations between the US and Russia aimed at settling the war in Ukraine and emphasized the need to involve European countries in this process. The top Chinese diplomat argued Beijing's position as follows: "This war is taking place on European soil and Europe should play an important role in settling the conflict."
Beijing is concerned about the desire of the US and Russia to settle the conflict without Europe's participation
Quite an interesting statement. If we recall China's previous statements regarding the settlement of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, they mainly expressed concern about military actions, called for respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries. Beijing also called for an end to "unilateral sanctions" against Russia and stated that Russia's war against Ukraine was caused by the failed security architecture in Europe. And this despite the fact that China has always viewed the war in Ukraine as a tool to counter the West, which would help reduce the influence of the United States and its allies around the world.
Here it would be appropriate to note that the war in Ukraine has opened up many opportunities for China, which Beijing has not failed to take advantage of. What is the opportunity to purchase cheap Russian energy resources worth alone. The numbers speak for themselves: in 2023, trade turnover between Russia and China reached a record $240 billion. In exchange for importing Russian energy resources, China exports a wide range of products to Russia, including dual-use ones. In a word, mutually beneficial trade and economic cooperation, plus the weakening and fatigue of the US and its allies due to being drawn into this costly war.
And now, unexpectedly, challenges have loomed on the horizon, and quite unpleasant ones for China. In fact, Beijing's reaction, represented by its Foreign Minister, to the rapid mutual courtesies of Moscow and Washington gives reason to believe that the Celestial Empire is quite seriously concerned about the possible consequences of this rapprochement.
What does the thawing of US-Russian relations mean for China?
It is difficult to give a clear answer to this question. Much depends on China itself, or to be more precise, on how it will behave towards Europe. The EU countries, discouraged by the new US administration's desire to improve relations with Russia, veiled by loud statements about the need to end the conflict in Ukraine, are well aware that without the US it will be difficult for them to stand up to Russia. And the issue is no longer about Ukraine itself and its future, the issue of preserving the EU in its current form, the threat from Moscow to the Baltic countries, Finland and perhaps even Poland, not to mention the economic potential of the Union countries, will be at stake. And talk about US plans to withdraw its contingent from the territory of the Baltic countries is the first sign.
China may lose a solvent EU market
Naturally, all this cannot but worry Beijing. Along with the United States, the EU is the most solvent market for China. In view of the very real restrictions from the United States, which Washington never tires of repeating, it is vital for China that the economy of the EU countries survive and not fall into recession. And against the backdrop of a possible rapprochement between the United States and Russia and the subsequent expansion of Brussels' involvement in the war in Ukraine, a weakening of the EU's economic potential is just around the corner, with all the ensuing consequences for China. Much now depends on the meeting of the American and Russian delegations in Riyadh. The results of the meeting will indicate the further trend in US-Russia relations and their projection onto the conflict in Ukraine and China's further behavior. At this stage, Beijing, in addition to its statement regarding the importance of Europe's participation in Russian-American negotiations on Ukraine, is also demonstrating interest in contacts with Kiev. Within the framework of the Munich Conference, the head of the Chinese Foreign Ministry held talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Sybiga, who invited him to visit Kyiv. During the meeting, Sybiga noted the importance of international support and strengthening security guarantees for Ukraine in the context of the ongoing war, and called on partners to increase military support for Ukraine, in particular in the area of air defense and long-range weapons.
Trump does not want to pay for the war, but does not refuse to sell weapons
Continuing with the topic of support for Ukraine, it would be appropriate to note a peculiar gesture by US President Donald Trump, who recently expressed his readiness to allow Europe to buy American weapons for Ukraine. In simple and understandable language, this means that the United States does not intend to continue to finance the transfer of weapons to Ukraine, and provides such an opportunity to Europe. That is, the doors for Ukraine's access to American weapons are open, even if Trump stops aiding the United States. However, it is not yet entirely clear who will be able to fully finance the purchase of weapons for Ukraine, given the limited capabilities of the EU.
Given the existing concerns that ending the conflict in Ukraine will allow the US to refocus its resources on the Indo-Pacific region, it is likely that other global players besides the EU will be interested in supporting Ukraine. It is clear that the expected scenario following the US-Russian rapprochement does not in any way meet China's interests. Therefore, in the near future, the world may witness quite interesting and fundamental changes that were impossible to even theoretically imagine in the recent past.
China is faced with a difficult dilemma
And China will apparently have to reconsider its position regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine, otherwise it may find itself in a very difficult situation, when events on a global scale may shift to the Indo-Pacific region. Given the likelihood of such a scenario, Beijing will have to take measures that will, to one degree or another, help strengthen Ukraine’s defense capability and prevent the expansion of the war zone deep into Ukrainian territory. This may include financial support through third countries, a revision of some areas of cooperation with the Russian Federation that involve dual-use goods that are vital to the Russian military-industrial complex, which will ultimately weaken the Russian army and enable the Ukrainian army to defend itself more effectively. In other words, the possibility of China’s rapprochement with the EU is looming on the horizon, albeit a forced one. Given the consequences of the US-Russian rapprochement and guided by its own, Beijing simply will not be able to sit idly by and will be forced to change its policy.
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