Currently, we are observing an interesting tendency between Russia and Armenia. An interesting tendency is that as the dose of intense political polemics and mutual accusations increases, so does the trade turnover between the two countries.
Officials of the two states have been making harsh statements against each other for a long time now. Armenian officials do not even hesitate to call Russia a "traitor", and the same rhetoric can be observed on the Russian side. If the Armenian side considers Russia a traitor because of its position on the Garabagh issue, those in Moscow think that Armenia has sold it to the West.
Mutual political accusations create an image of tension in the relations between the two countries. The reason why we call it image because the facts say other issues. We are talking about economic relations between the two states. In these relations, there are processes that are the exact opposite of the tension in political polemics.
You can talk, make political statements, and then change your mind, such moments often happen in politics. Economy is a number, where there are numbers, there’s no chance of lying. The figures directly reveal the speed with which the economic relations between Russia and Armenia are deepening.
The figures reflecting the development of the economic relations between the two countries were revealed at a meeting held in Yerevan a few days ago between the co-chairs of the Russian-Armenian intergovernmental commission on economic cooperation - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk and Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan.
Alexey Ovurchuk stated that in 2023, the trade turnover between the two states has increased by 55.8% and reached 7.4 billion dollars. This year, the growth rate has increased even more. According to Overchuk, the volume of trade between Russia and Armenia in the first half of this year was USD 8.4 billion. By the end of the year, this indicator is expected to reach USD 14-16 billion. The same Overchuk reminded that in 2020, the trade turnover between Russia and Armenia amounted to only USD 2.3 billion.
A sharp paradox emerges while analyzing these numbers. It is known that the relations between Russia and Armenia began to aggravate precisely in 2020 - after the 44-day Patriotic War. The paradox is that the rise in economic relations between the two countries coincides precisely after 2020. During the past period, the trade turnover between the two countries has increased up to 4 times, more or less. Based on political accusations, in fact, the relations between the two countries should have deteriorated, and economic relations should have been cold. But the opposite happens. As political tension increases, economic relations deepen and develop. Why?
It means that both sides are deceiving the world with false rhetoric of political tension, when in fact they are getting closer economically. This is happening at a time when Russia is under the sanctions of the United States and the West. In other words, Armenia is moving confidently towards increasing its trade turnover with Russia, which is under sanctions, very easily.
Another interesting issue is that both the USA and the West turn a blind eye to this, and are not concerned about the deepening of economic relations between Armenia and Russia. The conclusion reached is that everything is running smoothly in the West-Armenia-Russia triangle, and the parties are satisfied with their situations.
It is understandable that Russia, which is under sanctions, would use the services of Armenia to develop its economy. What is unclear is the deceptive tone of the political statements. Just as the figures reveal Moscow's true face, they also expose Armenia's real face.
Of course, the West also has its own interests in remaining silent about what is happening. Since the US and countries within the European Union cannot establish direct economic relations with sanctioned Russia, they use third countries, primarily Armenia, as a transit country to secure their economic interests. The fact that the West, which has imposed all kinds of sanctions on Russia due to the war with Ukraine, takes such steps shows how hypocritical it is.
It turns out that the rhetoric in political statements is inversely proportional to economic interests. The West, Armenia, and Russia are all working for their own interests while misleading with political statements.
Robin Brooks, the former chief economist of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), has repeatedly stated that Armenia is a key element in keeping Russia out of sanctions.
The well-known economist wrote as early as December 2023 that Armenia helps Russia in exporting goods that are exempt from sanctions. According to him, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, exports from the EU to Armenia have increased by 200%. These goods are then sent to Russia through Armenia as a transit.
Robin Brooks recently wrote in early September of this year that Western countries continue to supply their products to Russia through four transit countries. Among the goods supplied from the West to Russia, which is at war with Ukraine, are dual-use products used in the military-industrial complex.
“Germany is leading in supplying products to Russia. Berlin sends various products to Russia using Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Armenia as transit countries. The US mainly carries out the supply of its products to Russia through Georgia. Italy, on the other hand, more often uses Kyrgyzstan and Armenia as transit routes,” Robin Brooks notes.
The facts listed above show that the West and Russia continue to play their dual games with regard to Armenia, as they always have. Among these games are the strengthening of Armenia economically and militarily, and Yerevan’s revivalist dreams against Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan clearly sees what is happening and draws the necessary conclusions. It is a historical axiom that it is impossible to trust the West and Russia to the end. During the 30-year occupation period, it is known what plans Russia and the West (the US and France), which supposedly took on the mission of mediation for the resolution of the conflict, had and what conditions they wanted to impose on Azerbaijan. Therefore, while what happens in the West-Armenia-Russia triangle may be new and unexpected for some, Baku knows well what objectives stand behind these combinations.