High-level talks between the US and Russian delegations took place in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on February 18. The US side was represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Walz, and Special Representative for the Middle East Stephen Vitkoff, while the Russian side was represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, and Head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriyev.
The main topics of the talks included the normalization of bilateral relations and the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. At the end of the meeting, the parties agreed to establish a high-level team to conduct peace talks and develop economic cooperation.
Although the meeting in Riyadh was seen as an important step towards the normalization of relations between the United States and Russia and the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, the absence of a place at the table from Ukraine and the West, which supports Ukraine, raises questions.
Ukrainian political scientist Valery Dymov believes that the United States does not see Europe as an equal partner to sit at the negotiating table.
“Trump's statements do not mean that the fate of Ukraine will be decided without the participation of Kiev. Today, Trump does not see Ukraine and Europe as equal parties. Since Russia is a country with nuclear weapons and can seriously influence the world order and agenda, Trump thinks that it is possible to negotiate with it, but this does not mean that Trump will negotiate with Russia on Moscow's terms. We, that is, Ukraine and Europe, will not allow agreements to be concluded behind our backs, we will fight for our own interests, we will become subjects and equal participants in negotiations. Any government that does not meet Putin's interests is considered illegitimate for him. If elections are held in Ukraine, and a non-pro-Russian president comes to power at the behest of Russia, he will consider this illegitimate or demand new elections. Or he will cancel all agreements concluded between Ukraine and Russia, from the Great Treaty to international law”, Mr Dimov told APA.
US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky's approval rating has fallen to 4 percent.
Zelensky's rating is 4 percent?
The Ukrainian political scientist said that Zelensky's rating has indeed fallen, but not by 4 percent, as Trump said: "Even if Zelensky's rating is low, even if it drops below 50%, people still trust the government, because they understand that holding elections during a war means becoming hostage to the war. We will not be able to hold elections now according to UN standards and European standards. The majority of Ukrainians support any government that will fight Putin's aggression. Trump should also understand this. In this regard, Ukrainians believe that if the results of the elections held during a war or a ceasefire that Russia is likely to break at any moment do not satisfy Moscow, Putin will call it illegal and illegitimate. We do not support Zelensky, but any government that fights a state that is waging a war against Ukraine with missiles. Any government in Ukraine should take this into account and should be anti-Russian."
Are presidential elections possible in war-torn Ukraine?
Speaking about the possibility of holding elections under martial law, the Ukrainian political scientist said that this is impossible, it is prohibited by law in the legal regime of wartime: “This is impossible, since millions of Ukrainians are outside the country. Hundreds of thousands of people are on the front lines, part of the territory of Ukraine is under occupation. By holding elections without taking into account the territories occupied by Russia, we practically admit that the people who are under occupation are not citizens of Ukraine. Legitimizing this is, in fact, a kind of recognition of the limitations of sovereignty, and this factor will be used by pro-Russian forces, as well as by Putin. Therefore, holding elections does not comply with Ukrainian legislation, it is illegal.”
Europe leaves Ukraine alone with two powers?
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“Europe is now at a turning point. In Steinmeier's words, it is in the state of a deer frightened by the light. The statement of US Vice President Vance gave Europe a "cold shower" effect and woke it up. This is, in fact, Europe's awakening. Europe must wake up from its slumber to develop its social programs, security programs, and think about its own security. Europe, let's say, in the words of some US representatives, has not earned the right to sit at the table. That is, the US thinks that if you (Europe) are not fighting for your own security, if you are dependent on us, then why should we give you the right to sit at the table to negotiate about your security?! What is happening is an opportunity for Europeans to wake up. Europe must understand that its security today depends on both the western and eastern borders of Ukraine. No one is fighting for the security of Europe as much as Ukrainian soldiers. That is why I believe that Europe has no right to leave Ukraine alone with two powers that decide its fate”, concluded Dimov.
Sharing her thoughts on the Riyadh meeting with APA, Daria Grevtsova, deputy director of the Russian Institute for Political Studies, disagrees with the idea that Ukraine's fate is being determined without its participation: "Ukraine will, of course, participate in the negotiations. But if it advocates peace, not war... If Ukraine really sees its choice in peace, it will take a seat at the negotiating table and participate in the joint development of solutions, there will be a compromise on a peace treaty. Now, as we see, Ukraine is eager to continue the war. It is not even Ukraine, but Zelensky who is trying to continue this war... He is spending all his efforts precisely on the continuation of this war. And the Ukrainian people, of course, want something completely different, namely peace."
Is it legal to hold elections?
“Donald Trump says that Zelensky must go and a new president must be elected. Zelensky represents the war party. A president who represents the peace party and wants to resolve this conflict at the negotiating table should come. Therefore, Trump hopes that the elections that may take place in Ukraine will allow the country to elect a person who will defend peace, not to continue the war, as Zelensky is doing now. It is quite possible to hold elections. According to the Constitution of Ukraine, parliamentary elections cannot be held during martial law. It does not say anything about presidential elections. Based on the law, Zelensky should have left office at the end of his term and transferred his powers to the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada. Although the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada is also a supporter of Ukraine's pro-Western fascist policy, and this is not a good outcome for Russia. However, Zelensky wants to stay in power and extend his term”, - said Grevtsova.
She also emphasized that Europe did not leave Ukraine alone: "Europe continues to support Ukraine in conducting military operations, but will it be beneficial to it? If it considers it beneficial, it will do so. How the situation will develop now will also depend on the unity of the European leaders themselves. The question is to what extent they will be able to act as a united war party, because there are also representatives of the peace party among the European leaders. Therefore, there is a kind of struggle between them. Peace supporters and War supporters..."
- May Trump's agreement with Putin be considered a defeat for the United States and Europe?
- No! This is not a defeat for the United States and Europe. This is a defeat for the warring side, which wants to continue the war to the last Ukrainian and will use all means to delay the resolution of this conflict as much as possible. But Trump is in favor of resolving this conflict as soon as possible and speaks for peace. It is clear that for this he also needs leaders who will support this peace.
German political scientist, journalist, historian, former advisor to the German government Alexander Rahr told APA that the alarm bells are only being sounded in the countries of Northern Europe: "The idea of anti-Americanism is emerging. Macron, Scholtz and Starmer are voicing the opinion that Europe will not accept such a dictate from America in relation to Ukraine. But time is running against the Europeans. Because the Americans are achieving their goals. America's goal is really to stop this war and start a strategic partnership with Russia again. In my opinion, the US is trying to pull Russia out of the arms of China. This is Trump's goal. Although it is a wrong step in my opinion, he is doing it."
If elections are held in Ukraine, will Zelensky lose?
Commenting on the events in Riyadh, the German political scientist believes that the United States, in fact, has given Russia the opportunity to see the future of development as a victory for Moscow's interests: "Russia's main demands are being met. The Americans have agreed with them (Russia). These are, first of all, two demands that were put forward at the beginning of the operation, which is called a special military operation. This, in fact, means the demilitarization of Ukraine. Trump will not allow NATO to expand to this country (Ukraine), Georgia and the post-Soviet space. Thus, the United States, as the main leader of the West, is taking a step in line with Russia's security interests. Another issue: the United States agrees with Russia's point of view on the illegitimacy of Zelensky. They are already demanding in the form of an ultimatum that presidential elections should be called in the country (Ukraine) in order to gain new legitimacy. It is clear that Zelensky will lose these elections miserably. Hatred for him among the lower strata of the Ukrainian population is growing due to his policies, the involvement of young and old people who are not capable of fighting in military operations. Some will not forgive Zelensky for this. "He will lose. Currently, Zaluzhny (former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukrainian ambassador to the UK Valery Zaluzhny) has a better rating, and I even think that Arestovich (former adviser to the head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, Alexei Arestovich) has a great chance of playing a leading role in some kind of reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine."
What is the important point for Russia?
According to the political scientist, the important point for Russia is recognition of its victory, rather than continuing the occupation of Ukrainian territory.
“But is Putin ready to do this? Does he agree that Zaporozhye and Kherson will not become Russian cities, and that he will not abandon his plans to conquer Odessa and Kharkov? This will be difficult for Russia. This will have to be explained to the Russian people, who, in Russian terms, are waiting for the “complete liberation of all eastern Ukraine from the Nazis.” At this point, Russia will have to make major concessions for the sake of peace, for the sake of ending the war and for the sake of the plan that Trump will implement. This is the main compromise and the main thing that Russia must be ready for. And this is not easy, but I think Putin will agree to it”, - concluded German political scientist.
American analyst Stephen Blank told APA that the most important aspect of the Riyadh meeting is Washington's desire to develop a broad geopolitical partnership with Moscow: "Trump's vision is to make economic and political deals. This partnership, based on economic and political cooperation, could be a means to lift Russia out of its current geopolitical isolation and, in turn, create a new strategic axis that challenges the existing global order. In this sense, the partnership is not just about addressing immediate concerns, but about positioning Russia as an integral player in a redefined global landscape, with profound implications for both Eurasian and transatlantic security."
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