On October 26, Georgia will hold parliamentary elections, which will determine the country's future development vector for the coming decades. The main weight in the upcoming elections is related to the country’s foreign policy - the orientation it will choose, rather than internal issues.
The ruling party, "Georgian Dream," which pursues pragmatic policies, prioritizes the process of Eurointegration while also seeking to maintain normal relations with Russia and develop economic cooperation. The main opposition force, the "United National Movement" coalition, advocates for deepening relations with the West and adopting a more radical approach toward relations with Russia.
In this context, it is evident that the European Union has exerted unprecedented pressure on the Georgian authorities, even resorting to open blackmail, in an attempt to influence the outcome of the elections.
These pressures began before the final adoption of the "foreign agents" law in Georgia on May 28, 2024. The law, which required all organizations receiving more than 20% of their funding from foreign grants to register as "foreign agent organizations," faced sharp criticism from the West. Citing that the law moved Georgia away from Eurointegration, the EU froze 30 million euros in aid to Georgia in early July, while U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned of a "comprehensive review of U.S.-Georgia cooperation."
Another wave of pressure began on September 17, when the Georgian parliament passed a law banning LGBT propaganda in the country. The West, which grossly interferes in the internal affairs and legislative acts of an independent country, consistently portrays the adoption of undesirable laws by the official Tbilisi as a move away from European integration, often threatening sanctions. Another source of dissatisfaction is Tbilisi's maintenance of normal relations with Russia in the context of the Ukraine crisis and its refusal to join the West's sanction policies.
The West aims to confront Georgia with Russia and open a second front against Moscow, and it attempts to discredit the policies of the "Georgian Dream" in this regard. It is no coincidence that the platform used by the European Union for pressure—the European Parliament—has been activated as one of the levers to exert pressure on Georgia. On October 9, the EU Parliament adopted a resolution titled “Democratic Backsliding and Threats to Political Pluralism in Georgia,” explicitly demanding that Tbilisi align its foreign policy agenda with the EU, join sanctions against Russia, and withdraw laws on “foreign agents” and the prohibition of LGBT propaganda.
Just prior to this, the European Commission joined the process, warning that if “Georgian Dream” continued its authoritarian course, the visa regime between Georgia and the EU could be temporarily suspended. At the same time, considering the existing polarization in Georgian society, it was also noted that financial restrictions would be imposed to further exacerbate the existing divisions within the society. On October 8, the EU delegation in Georgia announced the freezing of €121 million that Brussels had planned to allocate to the country, citing its regression in democratic development as the reason.
However, Georgia knows very well what kind of disasters the measures taken since 2008 following the West's sedition will lead to. At that time, during the 5-day military operations, Georgia was not only able to regain control over the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but also suffered additional territorial and human losses when Russia joined the war. The West, which pushed official Tbilisi to escalation, was satisfied with collectively watching the events from the outside and giving symbolic support gestures. A similar scenario was carried out in Ukraine from 2014 and led to a known war in 2022. It is obvious that the collective West is a catalyst in the ongoing processes, and its destructive activity in the post-Soviet space. In this context, it is admirable that the Georgian Dream government does not follow these tendencies and pursues an independent foreign policy, and despite blackmail and pressure, it wants to establish normal relations with its northern neighbor.
The aggressive campaign led by the European Union through "soft power" in Georgia will directly affect the outcome of the elections and threaten the country's national security. It is no coincidence that the speaker of the parliament Shalva Papuashvili said that the opposition will try to overthrow the constitutional structure after the elections with the support of foreign forces. The National Security Service has warned about the risk of spreading the images of the authorities by using fake video-photo images. In short, Georgian statehood is facing a hybrid attack, and the purpose is to overthrow the power of the Georgian Dream through the election, or at least the "color revolution" method.
These events cannot go unnoticed for Azerbaijan, which has reached the level of a strategic ally with the neighboring state. It is no secret that the parties cooperate closely in many fields, including the energy sector, both on political and economic platforms. The main part of Azerbaijan's oil and gas is exported abroad through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Baku-Supsa, Baku-Tbilisi Erzurum pipelines passing through the territory of Georgia. In addition, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway line, the TANAP project and other international projects, including the Azerbaijani state company SOCAR, the billions of dollars invested in the Georgian economy, played a role in the strategic nature of bilateral relations.
The meetings held in the tripartite format of TRACECA, OSCE, GUAM, OSCE, Türkiye-Azerbaijan-Georgia created a basis for the parties to cooperate beneficially and support each other on international platforms. Simultaneously, the presence of more than half a million Azerbaijanis in Georgia and the sensitive attitude of the Georgian authorities to them are also factors that create confidence in the Baku-Tbilisi line.
Therefore, the stability of the neighbor Georgian state is as important for Azerbaijan as its own stability. Any internal tension, socio-political anarchy, disorder in this country means the emersion of threat, new risks in the region.
Considering these factors, it can be said that the parliamentary elections to be held in Georgia on October 26 will attract the attention of the entire region. The outcome of the fateful elections is also important amid lasting peace and stability in the South Caucasus against the backdrop of Azerbaijan-Armenia normalization.