It is known that in recent times when Armenia is trying to agree on the text of the peace treaty with Azerbaijan, it has been intensively armed with a parallel picture. Armenia, which capitulated to Azerbaijan during the 44-day war on November 10, 2020, has been actively arming itself since 2021.
Sometimes Armenia and the countries to which it applies to buy weapons issue an official statement, and in some cases, although the arms deal is not officially revealed, it is disclosed to the public based on the information leaked to the media. It is possible to make certain generalizations from this flow of information, which sometimes has a real basis and sometimes is simply disinformation. First of all, it is necessary to state that Armenia is rapidly arming itself and trying to restore a certain military balance and parity of weapons with Azerbaijan until the 2020 war. In particular, the official Yerevan is trying to increase the air defense systems, armored vehicles, and artillery installations, which suffered serious losses during the 44-day war and after the successful 24-hour anti-terrorist operation carried out by the Azerbaijani Army in September 2023.
Having frozen relations with Russia and the main military bloc of which it is a member - the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia takes the path of intensive armament with the support of Western countries, primarily France and the United States.
The important point is that the speed of arming Armenia, the weapons it buys, the contracts it signs, and the volume of those weapons are strictly inversely proportional to the real volume of the announced military budget. Thus, it was announced that the military budget of Armenia for 2024 will be 1.42 billion dollars. The main part of those expenses is the payment of wages to military personnel and civilians working in the Ministry of Defense. At the same time, sufficient funds are needed for conducting military exercises, medical aid costs, and the costs of maintaining the weapons in the army arsenal.
However, Armenia carries out serious reforms in the army with the help of Western countries, implements large-scale engineering and fortification works on the border with Azerbaijan, or finds funds to buy the most modern weapons from Western countries.
On June 17 of this year, during the visit of Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan to France, the two parties signed an agreement on the purchase of 36 CAESAR self-propelled howitzer. Each of these artillery systems, which will be purchased in the latest modification, costs 5.5 million euros. Thus, Yerevan, which acquired 36 artillery systems and 155 mm shells for those systems, spent at least 200 million euros.
If we add 3 GM200 radar systems worth 14 million euros each and Bastion armored personnel carriers for 20 million dollars each to this list, which Paris sold to Yerevan sometime before that agreement, it can be said that the military-technical cooperation of the parties has reached very serious numbers.
Considering that France has signed an agreement with Armenia on the future purchase of Mistral short-range air defense systems, it can be said that the arms contracts between the parties will exceed 400 million euros. Although the price of Mistral systems is kept secret by France, it is known that it has a high value, the price of 1 missile fired by these systems alone is 300 thousand dollars. In parallel, it should be taken into account that France supplies Yerevan with night vision devices, modern sniper rifles, etc.
However, Armenia's unrealistic military expenditures and activity in the international arms market are not limited to France.
On July 24 of this year, India's IADN agency announced that the volume of arms purchased by Armenia from India in the 2024-2025 fiscal year reached $600 million. Arms contracts that include weapons acquired from 2021 include the Akash air defense complex, ATAGS, and MArG 155 self-propelled howitzers, Pinaka rocket launchers, Konkurs anti-tank missiles, etc. It is known that military cooperation continues actively, this year India discussed modernizing Su-30SM aircraft in the balance of Armenian aviation and equipping the aircraft with modern missiles such as Astra BVRM and Smart Anti-Airfield Weapon (SAAW).
Recent reports have emerged that Armenia continues to purchase weapons from its primary military-technical partner, Russia, which it is experiencing tensions with. A few days ago, it was reported that Russia had supplied Armenia with a new batch of Smerch multiple rocket launcher systems. This fact once again confirms that Yerevan continues sourcing arms from all the sources, indicating that it is being armed from both the West and Russia.
In addition, officially Yerevan is heavily investing in its military industry and promoting domestic arms production. The Secretary of the Armenian National Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, stated that orders for Armenia's military-industrial complex have increased by 100 times compared to 2020.
Following this, Armenia's Minister of High-Tech Industry, Mkhitar Hayrapetyan, announced that approximately $440 million worth of state orders had been placed with military-industrial complex enterprises, with current 52 three-year contracts signed with 27 local manufacturers. According to him, various types of weapons, control systems based on serious technological solutions, UAVs, shells, and other types of armaments are being produced at local military enterprises.
Given this situation, a real question arises: What is the source of financing for Armenia's arms contracts, which are not in line with the expenditures planned in its military budget?
The answer to this question lies in the information released by Armenia's Ministry of Finance on Facebook regarding the 2024 military budget, which was not exaggerated to the maximum extent so as not to attract the attention of the general public. When presenting the state budget to parliament, the Ministry included a “priority supplement” in the budget draft, reflecting the country’s additional needs. According to this supplement, it is planned to allocate an additional 200 billion drams (approximately $500 million) to the Ministry of Defense.
Thus, it can be stated that Armenia’s military budget is not $1.4 billion, as it was declared, but nearly $2 billion. Official Yerevan has effectively formed around 30% of its military budget through various manipulations outside of the official budget. This once again demonstrates that Armenia is merely pretending to engage in peace negotiations with Azerbaijan.
It is also no secret that Armenia is not only using its own money but is also acquiring free weapons from the European Peace Fund, France, and other sources. They try to keep the value, volume, and purpose of these weapons as secret as possible. France and other countries are preparing Armenia for a revanche against Azerbaijan.
By proposing to sign a peace agreement without addressing fundamental matters, including removing territorial claims against Azerbaijan in Armenia’s Constitution, Official Yerevan aims to carry the remaining problem between the two countries into the future and reignite it at an opportune moment.
Statements made by the head of the Armenian Parliament’s Defense and Security Committee Andranik Kocharyan regarding the engineering and fortification works being carried out by Armenia on its borders with Azerbaijan also hint at revanchist tendencies.
"Azerbaijan is worried because the Armenian government and armed forces are implementing large-scale programs aimed at significantly improving our security. You have only seen a small portion of the construction and fortification works—these programs are being implemented along the entire perimeter of Armenia's borders. I call the newly built military positions 'fortresses'—the personnel stationed there are better protected, and it is easier to launch a counterattack from such positions," Kocharyan said, openly threatening Baku.
But official Yerevan forgets that by obtaining deadly weapons with the open support of its foreign patrons and creating a threat to Azerbaijan's security, it turns its territory into a legitimate target with these actions. On the other hand, Azerbaijan closely monitors Yerevan’s activity in the arms market and the nomenclature of the weapons it acquires, and accordingly purchases more modern and technologically advanced weapons, maintaining its military-technological superiority in all areas. Therefore, Armenia's and its patrons' attempts to militarize the South Caucasus and create a new hotspot of tension are doomed to fail. The sooner official Yerevan realizes this, the more it will protect itself from potential disasters.
President Ilham Aliyev, in his speech at the first session of the new convocation of Milli Majlis today, also issued a warning to those arming Armenia and those involved in Armenia's militarization. He declared that those who arm Armenia should know that they will bear direct responsibility for all future events!
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