Foreign

Foreign

â€œThe Economistâ€: Chances of pre-meditated war are slim in Nagorno Karabakh, danger is that, it increases the chances of front-line skirmishes provoking an accidental warâ€

09 March 2011 10:18 (UTC +04:00)

Baku. Victoria Dementyeva - APA. â€œNeither leader appears minded to make concessions. Yet the status quo is unacceptable, particularly to Azerbaijan, which hosts over 580,000 displaced people and smarts at the occupation of 16% of its territoryâ€¦â€, these sentences have been reflected in the article on Nagorno Karabakh published in â€œThe Economistâ€, APA reports.

The article reads that Azerbaijan is also an important oil and gas supplier: â€œBeyond the human suffering that renewed conflict would entail, Azerbaijan is both a major supplier of, and transit route for, oil and gas. The south Caucasus is also a major supply route for western countriesâ€™ efforts in Afghanistan. Outside powers have many reasons to pay close attentionâ€.

Probability of regulation of military operations in Nagorno Karabakh is analyzed in the article on the back of Sochi meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents: â€œSuch measures could restore some confidence. But they will do little more. Often described as â€œfrozenâ€, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been warming up. A recent report from the International Crisis Group says that ceasefire violations rose by 53% last year. At least 25 soldiers were killed in skirmishes. Besides, both countries have stepped up their bellicose rhetoric. Moreover, both leaders are putting their money where their mouth is. In oil-wealthy Azerbaijan, defence spending has grown by an average of 50% every year since 2003. This year defence will account for one fifth of Azerbaijan’s total public spending, and more than the entire Armenian budget. But Armenia too has increased its weaponry, with help from its Russian friends. The chances of pre-meditated war, the ICG argues, are slim. Both sides appear to believe that grandstanding is a useful negotiating tactic. The danger is that it increases the chances of front-line skirmishes provoking an accidental warâ€.