Foreign

Foreign

US National Intelligence Director: â€œViolent incidents along the Line of Contact throughout last summer increase the risk that minor military exchanges could lead to escalation of the situationâ€

21 February 2011 10:06 (UTC +04:00)

Mr. Clapper talked to the House Intelligence Committee last week, but his speech became public by the Intelligence organization just now.

During his testimony Mr. Clapper raised the issue of unresolved conflicts in the Caucasus saying they are most likely flashpoints in the Eurasia region.

â€œThe Azerbaijani government seems satisfied with the stalled Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, but Baku is seeking to focus Western attention on Azerbaijani interests at the expense of Armeniaâ€, he said, adding, heightened rhetoric and distrust on both sides and violent incidents along the Line of Contact throughout last summer increase the risk that minor military exchanges could lead to miscalculations that could escalate the situation with little warning.

Speaking about other regional conflicts, Mr. Clapper mentioned that, Moscowâ€™s continued military presence in and political-economic ties to Georgiaâ€™s separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, combined with Georgiaâ€™s dissatisfaction with the status quo, account for some of the tensions.

â€œGeorgiaâ€™s public efforts to engage with various ethnic groups in the Russian North Caucasus have also contributed to these tensions. Georgiaâ€™s new Constitution strengthens the office of the Prime Minister after the 2013 presidential election. President Saakashvili has not indicated his future plans but the option is available for him under the new Constitution to serve as Prime Ministerâ€, he said.

According to Mr. Clapper, as the US increases reliance on Central Asia to support operations in Afghanistan, the regionâ€™s political and social stability is becoming more important.

In regards to global energy security challenges in the region, Mr. Clapper reminded that, oil markets came into rough balance during 2010.

â€œDomestic natural gas production is increasing in many areas with existing production, as well as in a number of new or rapidly expanding regions. Technological breakthroughs have boosted US production of shale gas, allowing LNG intended for the US market to be routed to Europe, China, and other net importers of gas. The main obstacle to even greater gas supply availability is the lack of pipeline delivery capacity from land-locked areas such as Central Asia, particularly in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistanâ€, he mentioned.

In his testimony, Mr. Clapper also said nuclear proliferation is a major threat to the United States and its allies, citing in particular North Korea and Iran.

Clapper’s testimony is part of the U.S. intelligence community’s annual worldwide threat assessment.
CIA Director Leon Panetta and FBI Director Robert Mueller are also were testifying.