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STRATFOR: â€œThe main problem with any of FSU countries going the way of Egypt is their lack of ability to follow-through with such unrestâ€ â€“ SPECIAL ANALYSIS

STRATFOR: â€œThe main problem with any of FSU countries going the way of Egypt is their lack of ability to follow-through with such unrestâ€ â€“ <font color=red> SPECIAL ANALYSIS</font>

09 February 2011 13:47 (UTC +04:00)

The FSU is full of states with long-serving leaders, similar to Egypt. But there are several fundamental differences, ranging from geographic to cultural to political, that preclude the possibility of the Egypt scenario repeating itself in FSU countriesâ€, said STRATFOR, the US-based global intelligence company in its report for APA.
â€œDespite Western or pro-Western media reports, countries like Russia, Georgia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Belarus are not at risk due to a lack of cohesive or large opposition. Countries such as Ukraine and Moldova have a democratic system in which the public can channel their concerns. There are some key countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia that, for their own reasons separate from Egypt, are facing pressures that could potentially strain their political and social stability.
As for the Caucasus specifically, Azerbaijanâ€™s government had already come under pressure over a recent decision by the Education Minister to ban the hijab to worn by girls in grade school. This was met with protests in Baku and a few other cities. The situation has been relatively calm since then in terms of protests, though the religion issue remains a controversial topic and one that has dominated public discourse of lateâ€.

STRATFOR also focuses attention on the Azerbaijani governmentâ€™s anti-corruption measures and said it seems to be a public gesture to ensure the people see their government as friendly. â€œMeanwhile, the leaders of the groupâ€™s main opposition parties - Musavat and Popular Front of Azerbaijan - have not said whether or not they would be organizing protests. Indeed, Musavat is currently experiencing an outflow of its key members, so it is by many accounts only weakeningâ€.

According to STRATFOR, one of the key things to watch is if an outside player could cause some sort of unrest inside of Azerbaijan despite the lack of domestic propulsion on the issue. â€œIran has already been meddling with unrest in the country, so it would not be out of the question of Tehran using the excuse of Egypt and Tunisia to try to stir something upâ€.

STRATFOR is also watching Armenia because of upcoming rallies planned by the opposition in Yerevan Feb 18. â€œThese rallies have rarely brought more than a few hundred together, though the opposition is claiming that it aims for 10,000 turnoutâ€.

â€œThe main problem with any of these countries going the way of Egypt is their lack of ability to follow-through with such unrest. As seen in Georgia two years past, prolonged protests can rarely lead to much reform. Moreover, each stateâ€™s issues have nothing to do with cases similar to Egypt, but issues that fester on their own. The events of the so-called â€œEgypt Effectâ€ seem to be petering out even in Egypt. Egypt, Yemen, Jordan, Syria, Algeria and Libya are each already becoming calmer. It is all becoming routinized. Because of this, the opposition in Egypt â€“ the Muslim Brotherhoodâ€”is already starting high-level negotiationsâ€, said STRATFOR.