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International Crisis Group: More has to be done to change a status quo that is deeply damaging to Azerbaijan, whose territory remains occupied

08 February 2011 14:33 (UTC +04:00)

Baku. Victoria Dementieva â€“ APA. â€œEscalating front-line clashes, a spiralling arms race, vitriolic rhetoric and a virtual breakdown in peace talks increase the chance Armenia and Azerbaijan will go back to war over Nagorno-Karabakh, with devastating regional consequencesâ€, said the International Crisis Group in its latest policy briefing â€œArmenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing Warâ€, which highlights the deterioration of the situation in the past year APA reports.
â€œIncreased military capabilities on both sides would make a new armed conflict in the South Caucasus far more deadly than the 1992-1994 one that ended with a shaky truce. Neither side would be likely to win easily or quicklyâ€, said ICG in its report.
The document reads that the past twelve months have seen more ceasefire violations across wider areas, employing more sophisticated tactics and weapons. At least 25 persons were killed in 2010 and three soldiers have already been shot dead in 2011. â€œMore has to be done to change a status quo that is deeply damaging to Azerbaijan, whose territory remains occupied and which accommodates large numbers of displaced personsâ€.
ICG considers that the sides should begin to reverse the dangerous trends by signing a document on basic principles for resolving the conflict peacefully and undertaking confidence building steps to reduce tensions and avert a resumption of fighting. â€œRussia, as the leading mediator in this conflict, should cease supplying offensive arms and technology to the parties, and others should adhere to the arms embargoes recommended by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the UNâ€.
â€œLack of progress in the peace talks is increasing the likelihood of an accidental war at any time or an all-out offensive within the next few yearsâ€, says Sabine Freizer, Crisis Groupâ€™s Europe Program Director. â€œRussia, the U.S., Turkey and the European Union should make preventing this scenario a high priorityâ€.