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US analysts: â€œWithout solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, there is no possibility for the rapprochement between Armenia and Turkeyâ€

11 October 2010 09:05 (UTC +04:00)

Washington. Isabel Levine â€“ APA. Prominent US analysts on South Caucasus and Eurasia issues believe that without solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, there is no possibility for the rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey, APAâ€™s Washington DC correspondent reports. Speaking at the conference dedicated to one year since Turkey-Armenia rapprochement at the Washington DC based Carnegie Endowment Thomas de Waal, a senior associate in the Russia and Eurasia Program pointed out that, the process of Armenianâ€“Turkish normalization not only is in crisis, but also damaged the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.

â€œFor most of 2010, talks have been deadlocked. Several soldiers have died in a series of shooting incidents on the Line of Contact. In August, Armenia agreed to an extension for the Russian military base in Armenia and stronger military cooperation with Russiaâ€, - Mr. De Waal stated.

Other analysts, David Phillips of Columbia University, Carnegie scholars Henri Barkey as well as former US Ambassador James Collins joined the panel.

Speaking about the future of the reconciliation process, Mr. Barkey said it is not dead, but it is on â€œlife-supportâ€. This situation could continue for a long time, if something is not done to revive the process.
Barkey offered two main reasons why the Turkish government signed the protocols:

â€œFirst, the protocols were first agreed in April 2009 just ahead of the annual statement by the US president on April 24 on the 1915 events. By agreeing to the protocols, Turkey intended to ensure that Obama wouldnâ€™t use the word â€œgenocideâ€ to describe the killings. Second, since 2002, the Turkish government has had the ambitious goal of making Turkey a significant world power. Turkey is the 17th largest global economy, and is a member of G20. It is already a major regional player and is eager to increase its role globally. The reconciliation process is important for this foreign policy objective in two waysâ€.

All of the panelists agreed that the international community, and particularly the United States, has an important role to play in moving the reconciliation process along.

â€œBesides that, a lot of skepticism remains about the reconciliation process. In particular, many Armenians do not trust Turkey. Some Armenians want the border to stay closed. The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh remains to be addressedâ€, -says D. Phillips.

Answering APAâ€™s question, he predicted that it is unlikely that Turkeyâ€™s parliament will ratify the protocols in the next few months. He warned that Armenia, which has declared itself ready to ratify in one business day, may withdraw its signature if no progress is seen in Ankara.