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Political analyst Alexei Vlasov: â€œThere will be a pause in the process of settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflictâ€

28 September 2010 11:37 (UTC +04:00)

Moscow. Victoria Dementieva â€“ APA. â€œRussia is trying to diversify risks in the region relying simultaneously on Baku and Yerevanâ€, editor-in-chief of Internet-portal â€œVestnik Kavkazaâ€, director of the Information-Analytical Center for Research of Post-Soviet Social an Political Processes Alexei Vlasov told journalists, APA correspondent reports from Moscow.

He said Dmitry Medvedeâ€™s visits to Azerbaijan and Armenia confirmed this idea. â€œArmenia means economy and trade, geopolitical influence, but Azerbaijan â€“ energy. The Nagorno Karabakh conflict doesnâ€™t correspond to this framework of diversification because it is impossible to settle the conflict supporting both sidesâ€. Vlasov noted that Russia follows the principle of â€œto put all eggs into same basketâ€: â€œI donâ€™t see prospects of the conflict solution in the present phase. The regular meetings between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents, as well as tripartite meeting attended by the Russian president allow to freeze this conflict and to prevent military confrontation. Russia should continue to be main moderator of force in the region because of historic reasonsâ€.

Alexei Vlasov considers that Nagorno Karabakh issue will be one of the issues to be discussed in Astana summit of OSCE, because no improvement has been made in the resolution of the conflict this year, either.
â€œWithin a year Kazakhstan has tried to prepare a roadmap, but I think even if this issue is discussed in December, it will not be one of the major themes of discussion. The reason is that the co-chairs have not eliminated the divergences,â€ he said.
Vlasov says that there will be a pause in the process of settlement.
â€œOne of the causes of Russiaâ€™s maneuvers in its policy on South Caucasus is the change of situation around Iran,â€ he said.

The political analyst considers that the OSCE Minsk Groupâ€™s assessment mission to Nagorno Karabakh will not have significant influence on the resolution of the conflict.
â€œI doubt it will produce any results. It should be realized that the mediators have limited opportunities,â€ he said.