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US analyst: The Armenian side seeks more concrete guarantees about the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh and security arrangements before it will begin to withdraw from Azerbaijani territory

16 August 2010 11:43 (UTC +04:00)

Washington. Isabel Levine â€“ APA. APAâ€™s Washington DC correspondentâ€™s interview with US analyst on International Relations and Foreign Policy Alexander Cooley, associate professor of Barnard College

- What are the principle issues that still need to be resolved in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

- Although a great deal of progress was made in 2009, 2 major issues are still outstanding - the sequencing of an agreement and the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Though the Azerbaijani side seems prepared to accept the step by step approach to withdrawal and political resolution outlined in the Basic Steps of the Minsk Process, the Armenian side seeks more concrete guarantees about the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh and security arrangements before it will begin to withdraw from Azerbaijani territory. In addition, the timing of the return of Azerbaijani refugees still must be resolved. However, if the conflict is to ever be resolved, the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh will have to be some sort of a creative and even novel formula by which sovereign functions (security, diplomatic representation, education, trade) are divided, shared and even delegated to a third party (either an outside power or, more likely, an international administrative authority). The hybrid sovereign status of Andorra or the Aland Islands might offer some guidance, though I believe that the complex issues involved in Karabakh will necessitate some unique governance arrangements (arrangements for sharing the Lachin corridor for instance). Accordingly, it is vital, politically, that both governments prepare their publics to accept some new compromise formula for governing Nagorno-Karabakh.

- Do you see any major changes in the Caucasus in the nearest future? Would a current American administration bring a new approach to the region?

- I do not see any major changes towards US policy towards the Caucasus, except for the fact that the so-called US-Russia "reset" I believe has created a more constructive regional climate for great power collaboration on some regional security issues. But the basic principles of the Obama administration are similar to those of the Bush administration: The United States rejects the idea of "zones of influence" and strongly supports the right of the post-Soviet states to make their own sovereign choices regarding their security and economic relations and partnerships. Similarly, the United States remains committed to bringing Caspian energy supplies to market and helping Europe diversify its sources of energy supply and avoid the monopoly of transit routes. The Caucasus also is now transiting supplies and logistics for the campaign in Afghanistan through the southern branch of the Northern Distribution network. And, contrary to the claim that Washington has "abandoned Georgia," Washington remains a strong supporter of the government in Tbilisi and its sovereign claims over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Washington also has provided a record amount of financial assistance to aid with Georgian reconstruction following the August 2008 war. So, for all these reasons, I believe that the US will remain engaged with the Caucasus and even increase its regional role in the future, though the "style" and tone of the Obama administration may be less strident than that of its predecessor.