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International expert: If Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan reach an agreement on gas transit, it will certainly strengthen Azerbaijan’s position

25 June 2010 07:36 (UTC +04:00)

Washington. Isabel Levine â€“ APA. APA Washington DC correspondentâ€™s interview with Tunjay Babali, a fellow at the US based Harvard Weatherhead Center for International Affairs

Tunjay Babali has served most recently as counselor of the Turkish Embassies in Washington DC. Previously, he was deputy chief of cabinet to President Ahmet Nejdet Sezar, counseling on foreign policy issues, contributing to speech writing and preparing presidential level state visits to various foreign countries, setting agenda and scheduling for the president.

- The gas prices dispute between Azerbaijan and Turkey is over after the countries signed a package of agreements on gas supplies to Turkey. Do you think that all problems about Nabucco project will be solved?

- The recent agreement between Turkey and Azerbaijan is strategically most important energy development in the Caspian basin since the days of the BTC opening. This agreement is much bigger in an effect than Nabucco itself. It not only sorts out the source problem for the first phase of the project but also emboldens the viability of the so called 4th Gas Corridor to Europe. First and foremost, it establishes long term principles of energy development and transit issues between the two countries and serves best to both countries interests.

Because of its complicated nature and strategic ramifications it took more than two years even for governments of "one nation two state" understanding to resolve it. In addition, there were heightened sensitivities about broader geopolitical issues in the region; Georgian-Russian war of August 2008, Turkish-Russian and Turkish-Armenian rapprochements, Nagorno-Karabakh issue etc.

This agreement serves as one of the best examples of what cooperative spirit might play -beyond bilateral and regional scope, such a positive role. Secondly, it puts effectively and unshakably once again eternal friendship and strategic nature of brotherly relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan in to a central spot, against the wills and deeds of some that hope to derail them.

It would be wrong to say and argue that this development will solve all the problems for Nabucco. No way! But one of the most important "sine quo nons" to move forward is fulfilled. Now it’s up to Europe and Nabucco partner companies to fine tune the real demand and finance issues in coming months. I have no doubt that construction will start next year.

- It seems like Russia isnâ€™t against this agreement, Prime-Minister Vladimir Putin said that there is no competition between the Azerbaijani and Russian supplies to Turkey. Is it really so or Russia may worry about enhancing of Azerbaijanâ€™s role as a gas supplier?

- I truly believe that Russian Prime Minister Putin’s assertion is right in strategic terms. Given the level of understanding and cooperation between Turkey and Russia, I cannot imagine Russia to worry about this development. Azerbaijani and Russian gas supplies to Turkey and beyond are not alternatives to each other. They both have distinct and diversified clientele in Turkey and beyond. Azeri supplies will help make Turkish market healthier in terms of positive completion, but Russia will continue to be the number one supplier to Turkey for years to come. And till this day Russia was reliable and considerate supplier to Turkey and they even helped with extra contractual supplies during the Iranian gas cut offs and Ukrainian crisis in the past.

Russia can be and will be more effective supplier in North-South and North-West axis via Turkey. The more diversified routes and supplies means all the more moderate and complementary energy development for the region and less likely to have any supply and geopolitical crisis. Beyond that, Russia has big energy projects in Turkey to fulfill and has nothing to do with Azerbaijan, such as Nuclear power plant, Blue Stream II, Samsun-Jeyhan oil pipeline etc. So Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey all have more than enough in their plates to work with.

- What is the next step now? Do you think that Turkey and Azerbaijan might be successful if they encourage Turkmenistan to join as US has always been pointing out?

- That should be the next strategic challenge before us. Thanks to the Azeri President’s visit to Turkmenistan in November 2008, with the encouragement of Turkish President Abdullah Gul, and trilateral summit the three presidents had then, there is new positive spirit between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan President Berdimukhamedov is a wise person in terms of seeing his countries strategic interest. Now it’s up to Azerbaijan to play key transit role for Turkmen gas as well. It would be strategically mistake for all the interested parties not to reach out an agreement on transit terms for Turkmen gas and sort out any other outstanding problems in this regard.

Certainly Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan should not wait more than two years to sign the deal like Turkey and Azerbaijan did. Such an agreement will certainly strengthen Azerbaijan’s position not only as key supplier country, but also as the key transit country. That new role will also position Azerbaijan as indispensable ally and partner to the EU more than ever before.