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Sergei Markedonov: The main outcome of the past year is Turkeyâ€™s introducing itself as an independent player in the South Caucasus

11 December 2009 09:30 (UTC +04:00)

-What may be the results of the statements made during Obama-Erdogan talks in the context of the relations between Turkey-Armenia rapprochement and settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict?

-I think the main outcome of the past year is Turkeyâ€™s introducing itself as an independent player in the South Caucasus. Earlier, I would characterize Turkeyâ€™s line with two roles â€“ this country is elder brother of Azerbaijan and younger brother of NATO. Now Turkey intends to change these roles. Ankara does not only consider itself Azerbaijanâ€™s patron, the younger brother of the US, or NATOâ€™s southern margin, but also plays in various â€œCaucasian boardsâ€. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has said several times: â€˜Turkey â€“ is the main center of Eurasiaâ€™. Therefore this country should play its role at least in three regions â€“ Balkans, Near East and South Caucasus.

There are a number of problems in America-Turkey relations and mutual accusations have been voiced recently particularly in the period of the former administration. This is connected both with the approach to the Kurdish problem and in general to Iraq problem. As regards the South Caucasus, there is no serious divergence between America and Turkey. Some concessions should be made to Turkey, settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict accelerated and some positive results should be produced. This issue was the main subject of the discussions between US and Turkish officials in Washington. But the progress will be hardly reached until the end of the year. This is long-standing problem and it can not be solved by the end of the year.

I consider that renewed Madrid principles are one of the main documents adopted last year. This is some kind of a frame and it is possible to find solution within these frames. But it is clear that this is a raw document and there are number of points contradicted to each other. But in nay case, this is a frame and it is possible to conduct negotiations within this frame.

-Will indeed Russia, France and USA show necessary will and envisage truth showing to invaders their place and insist in liberation of occupied territories? Is it possible to expect serious progresses toward the resolute solution to the conflict from this point of view?

I consider that it will not. The soccer principle to fully support one of the sides using in the Russian-Georgian conflict or in the US and Balkan conflicts is not working here. The complication of the Nagorno Karabakh problem is that. If even we conceive the military way of the solution, it will not lead to the division between Turkey and Russia or USA and Russia. It will lead to the division inside these countries because there different elites inside the country, which carry different interests.