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Atlantic Council expert Alexandros Petersen: â€œBaku was instrumental in getting Nabucco agreement by reaching a deal with Russiaâ€- EXCLUSIVE

Atlantic Council expert Alexandros Petersen: â€œBaku was instrumental in getting Nabucco agreement by reaching a deal with Russiaâ€- <font color=red>EXCLUSIVE</font>

15 July 2009 08:47 (UTC +04:00)

- In the term of realization of Nabucco, what has been achieved by signing intergovernmental documents on July 13 between Turkey and some EU countries?

- The main objective of this meeting was to solve the transit dilemma fundamentally aimed to reach an agreement with Turkey. Not necessarily with gas producing countries but whether Turkey is going to be a transit country, energy middle man, energy hub and so on. What has been achieved is that particular meeting is that Turkey has been fundamentally tied within Nabucco project to Europe through Western Energy Security as a transit country. So there is not going to be 15 lift off, there is not going to be any extraordinary benefits that Turkey gets out of this project. It is going to be transit country like Georgia and Turkey itself in BTC project. The second step will be then they agree with gas producing countries like Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan or Iraq to realize full project and make sure that the suppliers for the pipeline are there.

- What is the significance of Azerbaijani gas deal with Russia in the context of the events which we saw a few days later in Ankara?

- It is worth pointing out that Baku was instrumental, in my mind at least, in getting an agreement finalized at very last moment for this agreement with Turkey by reaching a deal with Russia. That sent enormously important symbol to Brussels and Washington, that it is important to get serious on agreement otherwise you lose Azerbaijan. If you lose Azerbaijan you lose Turkmenistan too. Anyway, I donâ€™t think that Azerbaijani participation on the Nabucco project will be a problem. Of course, Russia will try to intervene; Russia has a foot at the door with that agreement signed in Baku and they think they will be able to somehow leverage Baku not to sing on Nabucco. But I donâ€™t think that it is particularly likely. The really difficult one will be the phase 2 of Nabucco: Turkmenistan and Iraq. In Turkmenistan you need to have solid agreement with president Berdumuhammedov which is going to be difficult given to the fact that Turkmenistan already has very attractive offers for Ashgabat on table from Russia, even better offer from China which may be finished in 6 months. Chinese have invested 3 billion dollars South Yolotan field. The western companies so far invested nothing. Plus, Turkmenistan has good offer at the table from Iran and they also have a prospect of offer from Pakistan and India. That said, Turkmenistan is going its way to work with Western actors recently. So they have sent a special envoy to Brussels; they sent their Minister of Foreign Affairs were in Washington. Obviously they are interested in the Western deal.

- When should we expect a building phase of Nabucco?

- It is planned to be complete by 2014. I think that it is a little bit optimistic. I think we are looking a year, maybe even more beyond it. It is actually depends on Azerbaijan. It is mean how negotiations will go with Baku. Azerbaijan is important for the first stage of Nabucco. If first stage will go quickly and Azerbaijan sign an agreement as a producer that will give the project all momentum which was lost in last couple of years.
If Azerbaijan signs an agreement then this momentum can propel whole project and you can actually reach 2014-2015 time table. If there is delay than 2014-2015 time table is very optimistic.

-You have edited first edition of â€œAzerbaijan in Global Politics: Crafting. Foreign Policyâ€ prepared for the 90th anniversary of Azerbaijani MFA. Where do you see the practical implementation of the book?

- The idea came from the Azerbaijani Diplomatic Academy and idea was to prepare a volume that would bring together high level officials form Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry to present key aspects of Azerbaijani Foreign policy whether it is energy, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, relationships with EU, USA, etc. Along with MFAâ€™s officials including Minister Mammadyarov and all his deputies, outside experts like Dr. Frederic Starr, Terry Adams also reflection their point of view on todayâ€™s Azerbaijan foreign policy. It is an important mix of official and unofficial views. The book is tied up not to Soviet time but prior to that which is ADR time. However it is not historical book. It is also looks at the future and gives a recommendation on the future foreign policy of Azerbaijan, for example written by the Dr. Frederic Starr.