After the “four-day war”, one of the most severe blows was inflicted upon Armenian propaganda machine. To see this, it suffices to follow the Facebook account of Armenian Defense Ministry spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan, who undertook the mission of “Goebbels”. Most of protests against the propaganda materials shared by him are made by his own compatriots. It is no coincidence, because the activity of the Armenian propaganda machine during the past 40 days really has not directed against Azerbaijan, but against the Armenian society, expressing dissatisfaction with the recent defeat. Armenia is actually waging information war against its own population in order to prevent social unrests and protests from turning into rebellion.
This propaganda has more or less effect, because the Armenian society is subjected to manipulation. This time the Armenian "Goebbels" decided to turn their weapons against the Azerbaijani side. Those undertaken "Goebbels" are trying to apply the same method against Azerbaijan, but they are defeated, not taking into account one fact – the difference between the Azerbaijani and Armenian societies. There are many differences, but the most important thing is that all in Azerbaijan, regardless of their political, religious and ethnic identity, are united in the issue of liberating the country’s occupied lands. One of the biggest results of the "four-day war" is that the military and political efforts of the Armenians to split the Azerbaijani society have failed. Even all shared solidarity during the funeral of martyrs, expressing support the government’s policy on the liberation of the occupied lands.
In fact, the Armenian propagandists are well aware of the essence and significance of this factor in the war. Therefore, for years, they have been trying to present Azerbaijan’s leadership as the biggest obstacle to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, they are unable to convince not only the Azerbaijani society, but also themselves through these arguments.
One of the Armenian websites has announced a plan of destructive actions of Armenia against Azerbaijan. Prior to the announcement, the website assessed the situation in Azerbaijan. Although they claim that the prices of oil will no longer be 100 dollars a barrel, but they can not prove this forecast, which they believe will lead to social unrest in Azerbaijan. However, there is an argument that can destroy this claim: the sharp decline in oil prices after the 2008 global economic crisis has not led to social resentments in the Azerbaijani society or affected the country. The sustainability of the society is based on the correct management, but not on the oil prices.
One of the claims of the Armenian media is that the drop in oil prices will no longer allow Azerbaijan to host the world-scale events such as Eurovision Song Contest and first European Games. However, the Armenian authors "forget" that Azerbaijan won the right to host the world’s most lucrative sporting event – Formula 1 Grand Prix of Europe for ten years, as well as it will organize the Islamic Solidarity Games in 2017. They overlook the fact that Azerbaijan continues to hold large-scale events even in 2016, when the oil prices are low enough. This approach proves once again that the holding of a global event significantly contributes to the promotion of Azerbaijan.
At the same time, the Armenian writers seeking an answer to the question of how Armenia can act in the current situation with Azerbaijan come to such a conclusion after a “deep analysis” that today the main threat to Armenia is the power of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and his image of conqueror. According to the plan of destructive actions against Azerbaijan, the Armenians have to use all possible means to overthrow President Aliyev. Naturally, the author cannot answer the question “what resources will Armenia do this?” However, the foreign policy aspect of the plan is more obvious, which is aimed at forming public opinion against President Ilham Aliyev in the international community.
Through what means and methods? According to Armenia’s plan, the “main weapon” of the West – human rights and democracy must be used against Ilham Aliyev on all platforms. And most importantly, the image of Ilham Aliyev must be a prime target for the Armenian diaspora organizations. In the part of the plan called “the Western direction”, it is proposed to include the issue of recognizing the “independence” of the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan in an integral part of the process.
The part called “the Russian direction” mentions that all possible state, public and expert resources in Russia should be involved in the work to focus on the country’s military and strategic relations with Armenia. According to the plan, in order to form a clear opinion of the work in the Russian society, the Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem should be constantly emphasized. In other words, there is a need to form in Russia a public opinion of the Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem against the Russian-Armenian tandem. We clearly observed this attempt in the statements made by some Armenian political analysts in Russia after the aggravation of the situation along the contact line between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops in early April.
And finally, the military purpose of the plan of destructive actions of the Armenian propaganda machine was disclosed. It is noted that with the purpose to weaken Ilham Aliyev’s power, it is necessary to expand the “Artsakh-Azerbaijan boundary” to eastward, occupy several villages, as well as at least one district if possible. The author(s) of the plan thinks that this can lead to a weakening of the Azerbaijani president’s position in the society and thus, Armenians will be able to achieve their goals.
Apparently, anyway the main concern of Armenians is President Aliyev. There are many reasons. However, the essence is the same – the Azerbaijani president’s policy towards the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict heavily damaged Armenians’ military, political and diplomatic interests. And it is clear that the results of this policy will be even more devastating for Armenians in the future.
As we have noted, there are several reasons why Armenia’s anti-Azerbaijani plan is aimed against President Aliyev. They themselves acknowledged the first reason during the “four-day war”. The Armenian political analysts trying to wreak their anger on President Serzh Sargsyan explained that he is not able to negotiate freely with Russian authorities like his Azerbaijani counterpart. It was an acknowledgement of the fact that Azerbaijan has diplomatically gone far ahead Russian-backed Armenia, which is the result of President Aliyev’s successful foreign policy. For this reason, Armenians attempt to discredit the author of this successful foreign policy.
But in front of whom? They themselves do not know it exactly. The Azerbaijani society will not succumb to the hazardous activities of Armenian propagandists. If the campaign against President Aliyev is for the Armenian society, this is another form of acknowledgment of the defeat. Thus, Ilham Aliyev is the president of the country that Armenia esteems it as an enemy and introducing the enemy country’s president by more negative features is like acknowledging his power. Maybe, the more the results of the “four-day war” increased hatred in the Armenian society against Serzh Sargsyan the more it increased sympathy towards the Azerbaijani president. There are no few Armenians who think thanks to Azerbaijan, they will get out of the swamp which they fell into because of the Armenian politicians. It is enough to mention the facts that Armenian families flee from Armenia for Azerbaijan. The Armenian provocation machine’s campaign against President Aliyev is also aimed at that group of Armenians who see their escape in Azerbaijan.
Of course, there are other points. One is that a monolithic society exists in Azerbaijan, and liberation of the occupied territories will further strengthen this monolithicity. The most important reason is that Armenia knows that Azerbaijan can start military operation at any time. Even Armenians have no doubts over expected results of military operations, and Armenia, at all levels admitted that Azerbaijan is much more powerful than Armenia from the military point of view. It was not only admitted, but even several sinners appeared. Russia, the Sargsyan authority, inconstant generals, Israel, Turkey and others. Now Armenian analysts have found another sinner of Azerbaijan’s significant political, economic and diplomatic superiority to Armenia and directed the propaganda machine against it. That “sinner” is President Ilham Aliyev.
Touching upon a point, I would like to conclude. The low-quality products “produced” by the Armenian propaganda machine have another similar feature. The anti-Azerbaijani articles reminding cheap propaganda sheets scattered about by Germans from planes in the Soviet territories in the World War II, end with the same sentence: “There is no other way”. Maybe, these articles are made in the same kitchen (even by an author), or Armenian "analysts" secretly compete in finding a way out of failures. In this competition, an author tries to introduce themselves intelligent stamping “there is no other way” at the bottom of their nonsense to devalue others’ arguments. The processes towards the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict are developing in favor of Azerbaijan either in military or diplomatic context. After the process end, the Armenian analysts will end their articles with the sentence “there is no other way”. But this time, they will have to add “defeat” or “capitulation” to the end of the sentence. At least, in order to save their “faces” …
Vugar Huseynov, Head of APA Analytic Center
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