Asia

Asia

Factbox: Reactions to U.S. review of Afghanistan war

16 December 2010 23:58 (UTC +04:00)

Baku-APA. A White House review of President Barack Obama’s Afghanistan war strategy reported on Thursday that foreign forces are making headway against the Taliban and al Qaeda but that serious challenges remain, APA reports quoting Reuters.
Below are reactions from experts to the unclassified summary of the White House review.
PAUL PILLAR, A PROFESSOR OF SECURITY STUDIES AT WASHINGTON’S GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY:
"The "review" was not a fundamental reexamination of policy toward Afghanistan but instead an occasion for reiterating a message aimed at shoring up support for the war.
"There are indeed some positive results in areas where NATO forces have concentrated their efforts, but they are more than offset by negative trends, including an overall increase in Taliban strength, in Afghanistan as a whole.
"The basic impediments to success in the counterinsurgency remain, including public resentment against foreign occupation and the lack of legitimacy for the Afghan government."
RIFFAT HUSSAIN, PROFESSOR OF SECURITY STUDIES AT QUAD-E-AZAM UNIVERSITY IN ISLAMABAD
"The review says al Qaeda on the Pakistani side is much weaker, but the al Qaeda-affiliated groups like the Haqqani Network and their local supporters are a big worry ... I think the Americans now are telling the Pakistanis, that look, you should not give them the space to regroup and emerge as a much stronger challenge. We have weakened them; let’s continue to press them and finish the job.
"The Pakistanis will tell the Americans: OK, we will not let this in any way undermine the cooperation we have with you, but on this (we will) agree to disagree ... My sense is that Pakistanis are not thinking of launching a ground offensive any time soon."
NORINE MACDONALD, PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT, A POLICY RESEARCH GROUP
"It ... is primarily for U.S. domestic political consumption.
"This short document itself concedes that what gains we see can be counted as fragile and reversible.
"Here we are with gains being noted for the first time because of the troop surge and the next thing said is that troops should start coming out in six months."
VANDA FELBAB-BROWN, FOREIGN POLICY FELLOW AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
"Buried in the summary is the acknowledgment of two significant challenges for the stabilization effort: the continuing Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan and the poor quality of governance in Afghanistan.
"The poor governance and corruption in Afghanistan has escaped effective management by the international community. Aggressive pressure on President Karzai has alienated him from the international community without making him deliver on improved governance. In a sense, we are in the worst possible of worlds with Karzai."
KAMRAN BOKHARI, REGIONAL DIRECTOR FOR MIDDLE EAST AND SOUTH ASIA WITH GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE FIRM STRATFOR
"Those of us who have been observing this very closely have long been saying the key to Afghanistan lies in Pakistan because if you’re going to undermine the momentum of the Taliban on the battlefield, then you need help and assistance from the Pakistanis. ... If you’re going to negotiate with the Taliban, then again, you need that intelligence from the Pakistanis.
"I just don’t see what kind of further pressure the Americans can place on the Pakistanis. It’s sort of a risky thing. On one hand, you’ve got to get more cooperation from the Pakistanis. But on the other hand, you don’t want to apply too much pressure that leads to tensions with the Pakistan that undermine the whole strategy."
PROFESSOR MALCOLM CHALMERS, ROYAL UNITED SERVICES INSTITUTE, A LONDON Defense THINK TANK
"There will be no solution to the Afghan conflict without some cooperation from Pakistan. The links between Pakistan and the Taliban are so close that any settlement has to involve Pakistan, but right now one of the critical aspects of this insurgency, one of the reasons it is able to survive under pressure is because the leadership is based over the border.
"(The review’s tone is) overall positive, but there’s a lot of very difficult issues that remain, the fundamental political issues, and without addressing the fundamental political issues of Afghan governance and its relations with its neighbors, there will not be a solution to this conflict."
DAVID LIVINGSTONE, ASSOCIATE FELLOW, CHATHAM HOUSE THINK TANK, LONDON
"The question is, is this just a military style report which is about slugging it out with the Taliban and see who wins, or is this an integrated campaign about government building, confidence building, community building campaign. And that’s what it’s got to be, you can’t have an isolated military campaign.
"Instinctively, it (the review) looks a little short termist. With a message coming out saying: ’We’re on track to start withdrawing soldiers’. What sort of soldiers? And what have been the decision making factors to actually say that a draw down of forces can occur? Are they looking just at tactical success, or are they looking at strategic development?"