Armenia seriously experiences psychological shock and military and political crises. Because the leaders of this state have kept the Armenian society on euphoria and false lies during all periods of the years of independence. These were such false claims as the alleged ancient history of Armenians, the uniting stance with false genocide claims of the Armenian church over its fellow-countrymen, and the strong army and the winner people claims during the years of independence.
Currently it is revealed how faint-hearted and coward are the Armenians who have always stood by that or other state and haven’t given up their “calling for fighting” ambition against Azerbaijanis under somebody’s patronage for the last two centuries. The Armenian people who have always been defeated in one-to-one battles with Azerbaijanis throughout the history and called their “patrons” for help should have known that the fortune smiled to their face for the first and the last time in XX century.
Nikol Pashinyan who made very shameless speeches of provocative nature against Azerbaijan after his coming to power in 2018 now neither can perform round dance in Shusha, nor say “Garabagh is Armenia and that is final”. Because the Azerbaijani army has completely destroyed the Armenian military system to such extent that Nikol Pashinyan and David Tonoyan will have to give account to their own people.
Armenia who has always relied on its patrons thought this time as well that somebody will come and correct the mistake committed by them, consequently they will get off with a whole skin as always. But the Armenians who were used to protection of them by Russia from 1828 until yesterday can’t achieve their wishes this time. One and maybe the most important factors that bring Armenia into a difficult situation is the restrained stance taken by Russia in this war. Pashinyan who begged anxiously Putin, Macron, and others during the period of war should have known that he will have to account for the provocative policy and speeches that he implemented against Azerbaijan during the last 2 years. At the same time, he should have known that unlike Gorbachov and Yeltsin who sold themselves to the West, Putin is aware of another “trap” plan of various strategists in the West via Armenians against Russia.
In this context, recently, the speeches of politicians in Armenia and the Armenian Diaspora in Russia about the necessity of waging war by Moscow against Azerbaijan look ridiculous and absurd. From the early days of the war, Armenia has pursued the intention to involve Russia in war by puffing out the existence of Turkey and terrorists in Garabagh and consequently to ensure participation in battles of the Russian army instead of themselves. If we put aside the factor of transfer by Russia of the massive amount of weapons to Armenia beginning from early days of the war and actually salvation of Armenia from complete destruction by Russia insisting on cessation of the war, Kremlin demonstrating restraint in the issue of military intervention, in fact, will have defended its own state interests and will have punished Pashinyan.
Russian President Vladimir Putin made a very important and interesting statement regarding the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict yesterday. Putin said that “Nagorno Garabagh itself and 7 regions of Azerbaijan around Nagorno Garabagh came under the control of Armenia.”
He said that “What does Azerbaijan say? Azerbaijan says that it has a right to return its eternal seven regions and distinguish the issue with Nagorno Garabagh anyway, which does not have a relation to any ethnic conflict and Armenia.” In this statement, Putin declares that Azerbaijan’s willingness is to restore its territorial integrity and we can not interfere in the issues.
The next words, disappointing Armenia, in the speech were these: “Everybody has own reality. There are not simple solutions here. Because the knot was tied complicatedly. Our position is absolutely clear. In mutual connection with Armenia too, we state the possibility of returning previously 5, then 2 regions to Azerbaijan on the condition of applying a certain regime for the provision of security of Nagorno Garabagh.”
Pay attention. Putin repeats words, sounded by President Ilham Aliyev a few days ago in relation to solution of the conflict. Russian leader speaks on the application of a certain regime in the next level after returning previously 5, then 2 regions to Azerbaijan for provision of security of Nagorno Garabagh. Thus, the Russian President refuses the independence wishes of the so-called “regime” while speaking on the future of Nagorno Garabagh even does not touch upon the issue of holding a referendum in Nagorno Garabagh.
It means that Russia, perceiving the reality of the destruction of status-quo in the war, can not deny current reality. While the situation changes, the main purpose of Russia is to demonstrate patience to the issue of the provision of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan by preventing interference of the third countries in the region currently. It means Moscow accepts the fact of living of Armenians in Nagorno Garabagh within the framework of only and only Azerbaijan’s border.
It means that Russia takes into account the new reality created in connection with the liberation of Azerbaijan’s lands from the occupation and the reality of the absence of status quo and elimination of the line of contact is already accepted by everyone.
Should not be overlooked that the 5+2 format voiced by the Russian President, on returning the territories, had been reflected earlier in the plan suggested to the parties by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Azerbaijan itself has already ensured a large part of this plan.
When it comes to Turkey's issue, unlike many people in the Russian elite Putin demonstrates composure in this issue. Because the reality is that it is necessary to reconcile with the factor of Turkey’s presence in South Caucasus. Putin stated: “Many countries including Turkey should be involved in talks regarding Garabagh.”
All of these show that Armenia’s attempts to involve other countries in the conflict as a third party has completely failed, and the world has no other way but to reckon with international law. As a result of thoughtful, strategical policy pursued by the Azerbaijani President all the plans of Armenia are being exposed.
So, geopolitical configuration existed until 1818-2020 in the region was destroyed by Azerbaijan. Now there is another reality in the region. The neighboring states of the South Caucasus are accepting this reality which exists for future kind neighborhood and development.
Zaur Mammadov, Senior Lecturer of the Academy of Public Administration under the President, Head of the Baku Club of Political Scientists, Candidate of Political Sciences