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Russian political analyst: â€œThe international community bears responsibility for the tension on the line of contact of Azerbaijani and Armenian troopsâ€ - INTERVIEW

30 January 2014 10:12 (UTC +04:00)

Moscow. Farid Akbarov - APA. “War will not start in Nagorno Karabakh in the near future,” political analyst Andrei Kazantsev, Director of the Analytical Center of Moscow State Institute of International Relations of Russia’s Foreign Ministry, Fellow at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, told APA’s Moscow correspondent. Commenting on the recent tension on the line of contact of Azerbaijani and Armenian troops, the political analyst said war can not happen at present.

“The new war will differ much from the one that happened in the 90s. First of all, at that time political and economic situation was quite different. The Soviet Union just collapsed. The authorities governing the countries were weak. Neither Azerbaijan, nor Armenia had a powerful leader to govern. There was no one to reach an agreement with. Now the situation is quite different. Azerbaijan has a powerful leader. There are opportunities to solve the conflict in the long perspective, even not in the near future,” he said.

Andrei Kazantsev said the conflicting parties accuse each other of subversive activities. “Unfortunately, subversive activities of both sides are inevitable, because no one is exercising control over the ceasefire on the line of contact. Azerbaijan and Armenia declared ceasefire many years ago. Actually, a third party should control the ceasefire. But no one is controlling it. Therefore, subversive actions often occur between the sides. The international community is responsible for this. It is a great mistake of the international community that it does not control the ceasefire on the line of contact, does not investigate incidents. A terrorist attack or an incident resulting in the human loss may happen there. In other words, the international community bears responsibility for the tension on the line of contact,” he said.

The political analyst considers that super powers, especially Western states are not interested in the start of the war in Karabakh.

Kazantsev also commented on Armenia’s attempts to achieve admission of Nagorno Karabakh to the Customs Union. The expert said that the situation regarding Nagorno Karabakh in the Customs Union is very complicated. “No one wants to admit Nagorno Karabakh to the Customs Union casting shadow on Azerbaijan’s sovereignty. The political decision will be passed within the norms of the international law. The border of the Customs Union will pass through where Armenia’s state border recognized by the international community passes. No one wants to admit Nagorno Karabakh to the Customs Union, they can not do it, even if they want. Because the international law will not allow it. A simple question emerges, but I find it difficult to answer it. How will be customs regime between Armenia and unrecognized “Nagorno Karabakh Republic”? I think this problem should be solved taking into account Azerbaijan’s interests.

Speaking about the possible repeat of Ukraine processes in other CIS states, Russian political analyst said Azerbaijan is a country, where this threat is expected least of all. “Of course, what is happening in Ukraine will impact other CIS states. As Azerbaijani authorities are very powerful, this reduces the threat. Unlike Ukraine, Azerbaijan has no financial problems. Azerbaijan is a country with free economy, which is financing itself. Therefore, I think what is happening in Ukraine will unlikely be repeated in Azerbaijan. But there are countries, where situation is worse than in Ukraine. For example, there is a very great threat that Ukraine processes will be repeated in Armenia. The situation here can lead to the confrontation between the opposition and authorities,” he said.