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US analyst: â€œAs for Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the prospect of peace talks, one should not expect open conflictâ€

17 September 2010 10:53 (UTC +04:00)

- How could the results of Russia Defense ministerâ€™s visit to Washington DC this week be understood? What is the possibility of cooperation between Moscow and Washington in defense sphere and what would be the role of Azerbaijan in it? Is Gabala RLS still on the countries’ agenda?

- Russian-US relations seem to be improving, and cooperation in a number of spheres is more possible than a few years ago. As for Gabala Radio Location Station, it probably would be something useful for both sides, particularly given its location vis-a-vis Iran. I would not be surprised if this location is used for a joint missile defense scheme between Russia and the US.

- The role of NATO in the South Caucasus was also discussed during the dialog between the two ministers in Washington DC. How real South Caucasus integration to NATO seems to your?

- Probably the main thing that needs to be done is a peaceful settlement of territorial disputes and normalization of relations with neighbors. Internally, states need to tackle issues of corruption and rule of law to help attract investment and demonstrate a stronger commitment to democracy. Looking ahead, I am cautiously optimistic. I think the incentive to settle the conflict is high, as the ’frozen conflicts’ in the region hinder achievement of other goals. The potential for economic development, particularly as energy corridors, is also high, so I am optimistic about economic growth. If the security situation in the region improves, I would expect closer ties with NATO and the EU, but I do not see full membership in either one as likely in the next decade.

- With regards to the regional conflicts, what are the risks of new tensions there?

- The situation, I would say, is tense, but large, open conflict like we saw in 2008 seems unlikely. Russia is happy with the status quo. Georgia, while no doubt unhappy, lacks the capacity to take on Russian forces. While skirmishes along the border regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are possible, it seems highly unlikely Georgia would confront Russia directly. As for Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the prospect of peace talks, one should not expect open conflict, but clearly throughout the region the outstanding issues have not been resolved, making the situation tense.