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Expert Ivan Katchanovski: I do not expect to see any country of the South Caucasus in NATO or the European Union in the next 10 years

10 September 2010 11:05 (UTC +04:00)

- What needs to happen in South Caucasus countries so that they better integrate into Euro-Atlantic structures? Where do you see the region in 5-10 years?

- Peaceful solutions of conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia are important conditions for the Euro-Atlantic integration of the countries in the region. However, even if these developments were to happen, I do not expect to see any country of the region in NATO or the European Union in the next 10 years. My study of the determinants of the accession of post-communist countries into NATO and the EU shows that the post-Soviet states, with the exception of the Baltic States, face bleak prospects of the European Union and NATO integration even when they would satisfy all official criteria for the EU and NATO memberships. These countries, including the South Caucasus nations, are often regarded in the West as not belonging to Europe.

- Azerbaijan is actively cooperating with NATO, but still isn’t its member. When do you think it will become a member, and will this ever happen taking into consideration Russia’s tough reaction?

- Azerbaijan is not likely to become a member of NATO in a foreseeable future for reasons outlined above. Russia’s opposition to the NATOâ€™s further enlargement in the former Soviet Union, including Azerbaijan, is another important factor as to why such a membership is unlikely to happen. Paradoxically, Azerbaijan’s chances of joining NATO would improve if Russia were to join the alliance. But this, as I said, is also unlikely. A major development in international and regional politics pertaining to Azerbaijan, such as a possible US invasion of Iran spiraling into a wider conflict in the region, might of course affect its membership prospects but I would not bet on it.

- Baku officials often remind Georgia’s example, saying that NATO must guarantee security not only to its members but to partners like Azerbaijan too. Do you think NATO could do that?

- I doubt that NATO would guarantee security of such countries as Azerbaijan, in particular, when this would pit it against Russia which is allied with Armenia. NATO did not intervene on behalf of Georgia during the Russian-Georgian war even though many Western politicians initially accepted Georgian claims of the Russian invasion.