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IMF: Caucasus and Central Asia to see 1.5% growth this year

08 October 2009 16:28 (UTC +04:00)

Baku. Nijat Mustafayev â€“ APA-Economics. The Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) have been severely impacted by the global crisis, with growth for the region projected to drop from 6.6 percent in 2008 to 1.5 percent in 2009, said Koba Gvenetadze, the IMFâ€™s outgoing resident representative in Azerbaijan.

The IMF expects that most energy exporters of the regionâ€”Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistanâ€”will record solid growth in 2009, owing to long-term energy export contracts, supportive policies, and limited linkages to international markets. With global energy demand increasing, most energy exporters are expected to grow strongly in 2010.

One exception is Kazakhstan, which is likely to see growth contract by about 2 percent in 2009, with recovery in 2010 held back by lingering problems in the banking system.

The regionâ€™s energy importersâ€”Armenia, Georgia, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistanâ€”are facing a marked slowdown in growth and deteriorating living standards as a result of a sharp drop in remittancesâ€”especially from Russia, which is in recession and has had to shed jobs previously filled by CCA workers.

Armenia is likely to suffer a contraction of more than 15 percent and Georgia 4.0 percent, in 2009, while the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan are faring better.