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Ekonomist magazine: â€œDecrease of Azerbaijanâ€™s oil extraction within rising of oil in world market detains economic growthâ€

29 March 2011 11:11 (UTC +04:00)

Baku. Vahab Rzayev â€“ APA-Economics. Increase of oil prices by 14% in the world market, during past 2 months, was caused increase of forecasts of economic experts and international financial institutions related to expected economic growth in oil exporting countries. The forecasts about the several largest countries have already increased and real performances indicate that the gradually renewed forecasts are correct.

According to APA-Economics, Azerbaijan was not outside of these processes. Thus, GDP annual growth was 1.4% in January-February, 2011, while it was 0.8% in January.

Experts of Ekonomist magazine say economic growth forecasts about Azerbaijan may be increased if the oil prices remained unchanged. Remind that, according to governmentâ€™s prediction the economic growth in Azerbaijan will be 3.8% in 2011, but IMF says it will be 2.8%. However, the real growth may be higher as in other oil exporting countries.

But, itâ€™s possible that the growth can be not observed. Thus, Azerbaijanâ€™s oil extraction decreases during past months. Thus, oil extraction in February decreased by 5.7%, compared to January, in January-February by 0.2% compared to a year ago. Note that, growth rate og GDP on non-oil sector made 3.8% in January-February, upper 2.7 times than total economy performance. This fact indicates GDP growth rate on oil was lower than average final indicator. But the average accounting indicates that oil GDP decreased by 2%.

As a result, though the prices rise, economic lag is observed in oil sector. Thatâ€™s why decrease of Azerbaijanâ€™s oil extraction impedes the economic growth rate.

According to foreign experts, increase o GDP on the account o oil and gas incomes is not a positive tendency. Because of this factor hides the stagnation which can be created in the economy. But, oil incomes create opportunities to finance the social state programs and increase the state budget. Thatâ€™s why, decrease production is a serious problem for the countries extracting oil and gas.