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Young Kim no guarantor of long-term stability

02 October 2010 04:29 (UTC +04:00)

Baku â€“ APA. When Kim Jong-il disappeared from public view after a suspected stroke in 2008, world leaders fretted that North Korea might suddenly implode without its strongman, APA reports quoting â€œFinancial Timesâ€.
Out came the dossiers of worst-case scenarios. Would Chinese and US special forces clash as they raced to secure North Koreaâ€™s crude nuclear warheads? Would the Korean Peopleâ€™s Army fight to the last of its million men? How many billions of dollars would be needed to ensure unification with South Korea?
Nerves have eased with this weekâ€™s official political debut of Kim Jong-eun, the leaderâ€™s third known son. The most important congress of the ruling Workersâ€™ party for 30 years also appointed a new elite that should help him cut his teeth in roles in the party and armed forces. These titles in effect identify him as heir apparent.
With this structure in place, obituaries of North Korea may again prove premature. A regime that subjects 24m â€“ often hungry â€“ people to brainwashing and sends dissenters to a brutal network of gulags could yet survive for many years.
â€œContinuity is the most likely medium-term outlook,â€ said Andrew Gilholm, senior north-east Asia analyst at Control Risks consultancy.
Although the country is continually riven by flooding and famine, there is next to no sign of public opposition on a scale that would threaten national security. Authorities deal early with unrest and defectors recount tales of summary executions. Daniel Pinkston, north-east Asia deputy project director at the International Crisis Group, said: â€œI do not see anything coming spontaneously from civil society as we saw in eastern Europe.
â€œSudden change could only come from the top and we would probably know about that only when they appear on television and announce theyâ€™re in power.
â€œIn the short term, say, between one and five years, the system is stable.â€
Although fears of a sudden collapse have ebbed, analysts say Kim Jong-eunâ€™s succession is by no means guaranteed. Many focus on the differences between this succession and that of Kim Jong-il, who was groomed for more than 20 years before his father, Kim Il-sung, died in 1994.
â€œKim Jong-eunâ€™s succession has been rushed through in 20 months,â€ said Yun Duk-min, from the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul. â€œKim Jong-ilâ€™s health has to hold for at least the next five or six years. If it doesnâ€™t, that could destabilise the regime.â€
Judging from Kim Jong-ilâ€™s gaunt, rapidly dwindling physique, many South Korean analysts have speculated that he is suffering from a terminal illness, causing him to rush the succession. The length of time before a transfer of power will help determine whether Kim Jong-eun can fully take on his fatherâ€™s aura, or whether he will end up being a puppet of senior officials.
â€œKim Jong-eun remains many years from developing the kind of authority, credibility and independent power base that would allow him to play the same role as his father,â€ said Mr Gilholm at Control Risks.
He added that Kim Jong-eun could hardly command true respect in North Koreaâ€™s hierarchical Confucian society while aged only 27 or 28.
North Koreaâ€™s elite is not homogenous. Rival camps in the military and ruling party will be vying for influence. Analysts have identified signs of infighting in the recent disappearance of several senior officials: one killed in a car crash, one believed executed and one ignominiously sacked.
Kim Jong-eun will need help from his uncle and aunt, Chang Sung-taek and Kim Kyong-hui. Despite periods in the wilderness, both have been elevated to high positions marking them out as mentors for the newly appointed four-star general.
Brian Myers, an expert in propaganda and a professor at Dongseo university in Busan, South Korea, has suggested that North Korea may try to consolidate Kim Jong-eunâ€™s grasp on power through military victories, similar to the sinking of a South Korean warship in March. Mr Gilholm suggests a third nuclear test could be used for this purpose.
Most analysts believe that no liberalisation is in the offing â€“ with a focus on stability outweighing risky reforms. Prof Yun said: â€œIn the economy, North Korea will maintain its current level of openness. So, about as easy to penetrate as a mosquito net.â€