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Turkey project director for the International Crisis Group Hugh Pope: In the order to end this conflict Armenia have to withdraw from Azerbaijani â€œrayonsâ€ - EXCLUSIVE

06 February 2009 08:16 (UTC +04:00)

He attributed the motivations of Turkish Prime Minister that pushed him to respond so vigorously on Israeli President Shimon Peres speech in Davos, to his wish to strengthen the partyâ€™s political position in the local elections.
â€œThe election is coming and he wanted to have a profile on the issue. What he said in Davos wasnâ€™t very different from what he said in Brussels on January 19th. He wants to make it at his political position and thatâ€™s his choice. I donâ€™t think that it has much to do with wanting to be a leader in the Islamic world. Thatâ€™s an additional effect. Remember, the leadership in the Arab world, who are the people he deals with, is not so keen on such a public approach. So such public scenes can be a double-edged sword. When evaluating this kind of thing, I would focus on its impact in Turkey first and then think about whatâ€™s happening elsewhere. Erdogan does want to be seen as a world leader, not just a leader of a narrower Arab or Islamic world. Thatâ€™s not how I read him,â€ he said.

Hugh Pope commented on the reaction that may be caused in Azerbaijan by the improvement of Turkey-Armenia relations.
â€œAzerbaijan and Turkey need each other. But many Azeris are quite frustrated with the decision of Turkey to start the negotiations with Armenia in the first place. Of course, there will be an emotional reaction. I donâ€™t know how it will end but at the end Turkey is going to make a choice according what the Turkish interests are. But as far as I know many people in Ankara like Azerbaijan a lot. They will take Azerbaijani interests into account more than almost anything else. But at the end of day if their interest is to open the border they will do it, and in the end better Armenia-Turkey relations may even help Azerbaijan, by calming everything down, making the atmosphere of collaboration stronger that conflict. That could be the result. I donâ€™t say that it will be. But let donâ€™t be completely narrow about it,â€ he said.

Hugh Pope also took a stance on the statements that Turkish-Armenian border might be opened if Armenia withdrew from 7 districts around Nagorno Karabakh.
â€œNobody knows is there linkage or is there no linkage. Even in the official discussions, sometimes there is linkage and sometimes this is not linkage. How much linkage is it going to be? Is it going to be an understanding or is it going to be written down? We will see. But in the order to end this conflict Armenia have to withdraw from Azerbaijani â€œrayonsâ€. That is clear. But when and how that all will happen is yet to be sorted out and presumably thatâ€™s why diplomats have a secret discussion is to work it out. Everyone needs this problem to be solved. The problem is not like treasured darling baby that we should keep with us. It canâ€™t be left as a festering wound,â€ he said.

Hugh Pope has been studying the Middle East for about 20 years. He had been correspondent of the Wall Street Journal, The Independent, Reuters in the Middle East and Turkey. In his book â€œSons of the Conquerors: the Rise of the Turkic Worldâ€ published in 2005 Hugh Pope wrote about his visit to Aghdam and Fuzuli regions through Azerbaijan. He speaks Turkish, Persian, Arabic and French.