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Flood refugees threaten Pakistan’s political stability

23 September 2010 03:03 (UTC +04:00)

Baku â€“ APA. Millions of people forced to flee their homes by Pakistan’s worst ever floods may emerge as the most explosive issue for a feeble government in the wake of a disaster that will strain the economy for years to come, APA reports quoting â€œReutersâ€.
Pakistan was already under growing pressure to deal with over one million people displaced by fighting between the army and homegrown Taliban militants in the northwest.
Now it must tackle a wider crisis -- 10 million people displaced by the floods -- that could create political instability in a frontline state in the U.S. war on militancy.
"If these people are not somehow accommodated and their issues are not addressed in terms of basic shelter, basic food, medical care and rehabilitation and in terms of livelihood, then we are looking at potentially large social unrest," said Kamran Bokhari, South Asia director at STRATFOR global intelligence.
"Dislocation by itself can bring down states and governments, in theory."
While floodwaters have largely receded in northwest and central Pakistan, thousands are still being evacuated in the south, officials say.
"There are people who have been displaced only six days ago," Louis-Georges Arsenault, director of UNICEF’s Office of Emergency Programmes, told Reuters after visiting camps in southern Sindh province.
The cash-strapped government will be hard pressed to generate funds, work out complicated logistics and, most importantly, prove it can take charge after the military did most of the heavy lifting during flood relief and rescue operations.
Leaving displacement issues to the powerful military as well could further undermine the state’s credibility.
Analysts say that while a army-led coup is highly unlikely, the military may decide to take measured action if the government fails to help the displaced, especially since the Taliban could recruit flood victims who give up on the state.
"In a situation of crisis when the civilian government loses legitimacy, it may be easy for the military to either manipulate the government from the sidelines, or indirectly bring in its own men to replace the government," said political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi.
Speculation is swirling about the fate of the government.
What is clear, said Pakistani analyst Ahmed Rashid, is the army "is fed up with the government."
Critics say the government and the army have been pressuring people displaced by fighting to return home, despite security fears and lack of resources to rebuild.
Former Taliban stronghold Swat Valley, hit hard by floods, highlights the multiple layers of the displacement problem.