"Breaking economic relations with Russia can result in a disaster for Armenia. Because it is Russia that keeps Armenia's economy going."
Russian political experts said in their interviews with APA's Moscow correspondent.
According to them, the disruption of economic relations with Moscow is a threat to Nikol Pashinyan's regime, and this threat consists in the possibility of a revolutionary situation in Armenia.
“How realistic is it that the Eurasian Union, which accounts for more than 50 percent of Armenia's exports, will disrupt economic relations with Russia?" to the question, the editor-in-chief of "Vestnik Kavkaza" information agency, Caucasian expert Andrey Petrov emphasized that Armenia's participation in the CSTO and the Eurasian Union are fundamentally different from each other: "If Armenia participated in the CSTO for political purposes, it hoped that in the confrontation with Azerbaijan, it would give it some will give military advantages. However, by participating in the Eurasian Union, Armenia receives constant economic income every day, every hour. The Eurasian Union is a free market. This means that any entrepreneur from the countries that are members of the organization can bring and sell the produced products in the territory of another member country without paying customs duty. Second, the Eurasian Union is a free labor market. In principle, this is the most important. Armenian citizens have the right to work in Russia as Russian citizens. That is, they can come to Russia and easily get a job without obtaining a special permit or patent. In short, membership in the Eurasian Union allows Armenia to sell 50 percent of its exported products on the Russian market. In the last two years, exports from Armenia to Russia have increased many times. Parallel import from Armenia to Russia takes place, that is, the products of the countries that imposed sanctions on Russia are exported to Russia through Armenia. Armenia gets a lot of income from this. Every seventh citizen of Armenia works in Russia, which means 300,000 people. Due to membership in the Eurasian Union, Armenian citizens feel very comfortable in the Russian labor market”.
According to the assessments of Russian experts, the export from Armenia to Russia has increased many times in the last two years, and the reason for this is the parallel import from Armenia to Russia, that is, the products of the countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia are exported to Russia through Armenia, from which Armenia receives the biggest income.
Dmitry Solonnikov, director of the Institute of Modern State Development, noted that last year, the volume of trade turnover of Armenia with the Eurasian Union was 4.6 billion. dollar: "This is quite a large number. Trade with the member countries of the Union is an important factor for Armenia. However, the main trade here is Armenia's trade with Russia. The volume of trade turnover between the two countries is 4.1 billion dollars. Therefore, Russia is the priority for Armenia, and then the Eurasian Union. Being a member of the Union, Armenia also gets a very preferential price for its energy resources. For Armenia, buying energy resources at a preferential price is a stabilizing political and economic factor."
Russian experts believe that the main part of Armenia's economy is formed due to remittances sent from Russia. At the same time, the economic growth recorded in Armenia in the last two years is connected with the migration of Russian citizens to Armenia and the spending of their funds there after the start of the Ukrainian war.
Director of the Russian Institute of Political Studies, political scientist Sergei Markov predicts that leaving the Eurasian Economic Union will lead to very serious consequences for Armenia: "It will be a disaster for Armenia. Currently, the economic development of Armenia is not going badly. However, this development is due to the removal of sanctions imposed by the West on Russia through Armenia. In this case, economic relations with Russia are very important for Armenia. Armenia also serves the Russian economy with this activity. The absence of customs barriers between the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union allows Armenian products to be exported to the Russian market in large quantities. Therefore, the result of leaving the Eurasian Economic Union will be very bad for Armenia. However, the Armenian leadership hopes that this will not only be an exit from the Eurasian Union, but also a joining of the economic programs of the European Union and the West. In this case, Armenia's losses due to its exit from the Eurasian Union will be compensated. Armenia may be negotiating with France and the USA in this direction. The USA and Europe have promised Armenia a large sum of money in exchange for breaking relations with Russia.
According to the conclusion of Russian experts, today Armenia's Euro-Atlantic political-economic course is provided by the income it earns from the Eurasian Union.
"Armenia today is, in fact, yesterday's Ukraine. However, unlike Ukraine, Armenia tries to maintain its integration relations with Russia and wants to ensure its transition to the West due to the privileges it has obtained. Therefore, breaking the existing relations with the Eurasian Union will be a brutal blow to the Armenian economy. It is not clear how the Armenian economy will tolerate this. After Russia made the passage of Armenian products from Upper Lars a little difficult, there was panic in Armenia. Russia was forced to take this step after the Armenian leadership refused to participate in the integration measures of the post-Soviet space. Immediately there was excitement in Armenia. Now they say that Armenia will participate in the Eurasian Union summit to be held in Petersburg in December. In Armenia, they understand well that without the Eurasian Union, big problems will arise for the country's economy. Neither the Armenian society, nor the state, nor the management system will withstand the shock of completely severing relations with the Union," Dmitry Solonnikov noted.
According to Andrey Petrov, if economic relations with the Eurasian Union and Moscow are disrupted, there will be huge obstacles for Armenian citizens in the Russian labor market.
"This will be a huge loss for Armenia's economy. Such a heavy loss is a threat to Nikol Pashinyan's regime. The disruption of economic relations with Russia could end in tragedy for Pashinyan's rule. A revolutionary situation may arise in the country. Therefore, Pashinyan will not break relations with the Eurasian Union and, unlike the CSTO summit, he will participate in the summit to be held in St. Petersburg at the end of December," the Caucasian expert emphasized.