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Ceasefire violations doubled on contact line between Azerbaijani and Armenian troops - ANALYSIS

Ceasefire violations doubled on contact line between Azerbaijani and Armenian troops - <span style="color: red;">ANALYSIS

30 December 2012 15:34 (UTC +04:00)

Baku. Rashad Suleymanov – APA. The ceasefire regime was violated more than 1,480 times on the contact line between Azerbaijani and Armenian troops except continuous battles in all directions during the first ten days of June in 2012.

According to the results of the analysis carried out on the basis of information confirmed by the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, the number of violations of the ceasefire doubled in 2012 compared to 2011. 24 monitorings were conducted at the Karabakh frontline, state border and contact line of troops under the mandate of the Personal Representative of the Chairman-in-Office of the OSCE mediating in the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The most intense period: March – April

According APA’s research, while in previous years the Armenian Armed Forces became active on the eve of New Year, Novruz Holiday, 26 June - Day of Azerbaijani Armed Forces, this tendency began to change in different directions in the past two years. This was due to the high combat readiness of military units of Azerbaijani Army on the frontline, prevention of the enemy’s expected subversive acts with the timely respond in the traditional dates. Analysis shows that the opposite side that could not reach the desired results on traditional dates is attempting to change the psychological status on the front in its favor at different times and by unexpected sabotage acts.

According to the results of the monitoring, activation was observed on both sides of the front in March-August, 2012. The battles accompanied with subversive acts were mainly recorded near the positions in direction of Kazakh and Tovuz regions. According to APA's exclusive military sources, more than 40 subversive acts by Armenian Army were prevented both on the state border and Karabakh frontline. The large number of soldiers were killed or wounded due to the implementation of preventive measures. 5 light military vehicles (mainly UAZ), 2 trucks, 4 excavators and bulldozers of Armenian Armed Forces were destroyed. Position changes occurred in favor of Azerbaijani Army in some parts of the state border in the direction of Gadabay and Kazakh regions. These changes ensure the Azerbaijani Armed Forces’ advantage over the rival, and pave the way to detect the possible threats by Armenian Republic and neutralize the enemy on the state border.

Regions, where the ceasefire was violated more

According to results of monitorings, ceasefire regime was violated 87 times in January, 64 times in February, 124 times in March, 147 times in April, 146 times in May, 146 times in June, 154 times in September, 119 times in October, 101 times in November and 131 times in December.

As in previous years, ceasefire regime was mainly violated in the direction of Karabakh frontline. In general, 79.7% or 1,176 of battles related to ceasefire violation happened on Karabakh frontline. As to regions, the main direction in ceasefire violation were Aghdam and Fuzuli regions. 57.3% of fights over the past year was recorded in these two regions.

During the reporting period, ceasefire regime was violated 349 times in Aghdam direction, 325 times in Fuzuli, 144 times in Goranboy, 144 times in Khojavand, 139 times in Tartar, 64 times in Jabrayil and 11 times in Goygol direction.

42.9% of battles on Armenia-Azerbaijan border took place in Gazakh region. Ceasefire was violated in this direction 167 times within the past year. The main hard battles also took place in Gazakh region in June. The Defense Ministry spread information on 84 violations of ceasefire in the direction of Tovuz region, 40 times in direction of Gadabay region, 11 times in direction of Dashkesen region, 1 time in direction of Agstafa region.

In July, 2012, 1 incident connected with ceasefire violation was recorded on Armenian border of Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. A serviceman of Azerbaijani armed forces died in the incident.

Nature of battles

From March till September, the activity increased on both sides in all directions of the frontline.

Activation increased in Gazakh-Tovuz direction during March-Aril. Azerbaijani Armed Forces told APA that thanks to preventive measures of Azerbaijani Army, attempts to pass the contact line by subversive groups sent to state border by Armenian Defense Ministry on March 14, 19 and 31, were prevented. Consequently, a major of the group was killed on the contact line. And 3 servicemen were wounded in the last attempt. Armenian Defense Ministry confirmed this fact a week later and declared that servicemen hit mines. On April 18, one serviceman of Armenian army was killed and another was wounded.

In the last decade of April, subversive groups of Azerbaijani army annihilated 5 servicemen of Armenian army in direction of Gazakh and Tovuz regions.

In June, 2012, the situation on the contact line between Azerbaijani and Armenian troops was more intense than other months. According to official information of Ministry of
Defense, on June 5-12, intensive battles were recorded in Armenia-Azerbaijan state border and all directions of Karabakh front. In this period, 5 Azerbaijani military servicemen were killed, 1-injured during violation of ceasefire by Armenians and repulsing sabotage attacks. Besides, 4 servicemen hit the mine while fulfilling the task. Both sides strengthened activity of subversive group.

In June, though the Armenian side did not officially report the casualties in Karabakh, information about annihilation of a lot of soldiers of the opposite side in the operations conducted by Azerbaijani army was posted in internet sites. Generally, in spite of casualties, the officials state that June was successful for Azerbaijani army.

Casualties

According to the monitoring conducted by APA, 2 Azerbaijani servicemen were captivated by Armenians in the frontline, 23 servicemen, 1 civilian were injured and 16 – killed as a result of ceasefire violation and mine explosions.

In comparison to previous years, mine accidents in frontline increased. 16 mine accidents occurred in contact line of Azerbaijani and Armenian troops. 12 servicemen were injured (1 serviceman received traumatic brain injuries) and 3 servicemen – killed during the 12 accidents, which were confirmed by the Ministry of Defense. One of servicemen hitting the mine was ensign, 4 – officers, 7 – soldiers. One of killed servicemen is officer, 2 – soldiers. 3 of mine accidents occurred in Tartar, 3 – in Goranboy, 2 – in Fuzuli, 1 – Khojavend, 2 – in Aghdam, 1 – in Tovuz. According to monitoring, most of accidents were recorded during the operations. In general, number of mine accidents tripled compared with 2011.

According to APA’s information quoting Armenian mass media, internet sites and social networks, 36 Armenian servicemen were killed in 2012. At least 22 Armenian soldiers were injured. These casualties do not include soldiers, who died from avalanche, out-of-regulation cases or diseases.

2013 will be more intense

Analysis of the accidents occurred in 2012 indicates that the situation on the frontline will be more intense in 2013. Due to presidential elections in February, 2013, Sargsyan’s power can attempt to draw the attention of the people to the front. Such attempts were made in Yerevan on the eve of the rallies against election fraud in March, 2008.