Foreign

Home page

Foreign

Russian experts: Historic chance for peace in South Caucasus is missed out-COMMENTARY

23 November 2023 15:09 (UTC +04:00)

"It is not really understandable why the historic chance for peace in the South Caucasus is missed. Armenia and its Western supporters actively participate in missing this chance. "France is supplying weapons to Yerevan, and the United States, seeing that "lose Garabagh card", is restarting the "Section 907" adopted in 1992."

Russian political experts said during interviews with APA's Moscow correspondent.

"Why does someone come out and try to arm Armenia and take revenge when there is a chance for peace?"

Political commentator Dmitry Babich said that there is a chance for peace in the region, to sign a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and to open transport communications from the Zangazur Corridor and the territories closed due to the Garabagh conflict: "We should be happy about this. But what do they do in the West? They are talking about some humanitarian disaster. France declared that it should supply arms to Armenia. Why does someone try to arm Armenia and take revenge when there is a chance for peace? These are very unpleasant situations. All this can only be evaluated as a manifestation of the aggressive and hostile idea. After all, what national interest can France have in Armenia or the Garabagh region of Azerbaijan? These interests generally do not exist. Because this is not their region."

"A country that calls itself a mediator cannot accuse one of the parties of the crime of ethnic cleansing"

The expert noted that Azerbaijan has taken the right position regarding the peace treaty negotiations with Armenia.

"It is very important where the negotiations are held and with which mediators. Russia has learned from this. Once upon a time, Russia went to the Normandy format regarding Ukraine, Western countries hoped that France and Germany would act as mediators between Kyiv and Moscow. However, France and Germany became allies of Ukraine. The situation is the same with Azerbaijan. If the USA and France behave as 100 percent allies of Armenia and Pashinyan, if they do not want real peace in the South Caucasus, the signing of a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan, it seems that they do not want it, then why should we talk to them and sign something on their territory? Let the peace treaty be signed somewhere else, for example in Georgia, if you don't want it to be signed in Moscow, let it be signed in Africa. As a result, it doesn't matter where the signatures are placed on the contract. If a country that calls itself a mediator insults one of the parties and says that it committed some kind of ethnic cleansing, then that country cannot be called a mediator. There are no such mediators," Babich emphasized.

Political scientist Alexey Naumov said that Russia's attitude towards the presence of the West in Armenia and the South Caucasus, in general, cannot be good: "I think that what happened shows that Russia allows Armenia to repeat its mistakes. It allows Yerevan to see what the end of its known policy will be.

In Russia, they understand well that the countries of the South Caucasus do not want the West to be represented on a large scale in the region. What Armenia is doing right now is nothing but digging a well for itself, the Pashinyan regime, and the South Caucasus region in general. Because it won't be good for anyone."

"Talks about leaving the KTMT are necessary for Pashinyan to stay in power"

The expert emphasized that Armenia's exit from the CSTO does not seem realistic: "Because, although Armenia so-called goes to the West, it cannot actually leave its geographical region. Therefore, it is beneficial for Armenia to stay in the CSTO. All these rumors are necessary for Pashinyan to maintain his power. The people of Armenia, traumatized after the second Karabakh war and the anti-terrorist operation, should not lose heart. "Russia betrayed Armenia", "Russia did not go to war with Azerbaijan because of Karabakh", and "The West embraced Armenia and sent an armored personnel carrier" - all these are psychotherapeutic effects for Armenians.

As for the issue of removing the Russian military base from Armenia, I think that this is also impossible. Of course, if the Armenian side insists on it, I don't think that Moscow will be an obstacle to it. Because Russia does not need a military base in Armenia that much. Armenia needs this first of all. If Armenia wants to completely sever ties with Russia, if it wants to dig a well for itself, let it be. Russia will not be an obstacle to this. Then they will come and beg again."

"Moscow has crossed the line over Pashinyan"

Naumov said that he does not believe that the United States can provide Armenia with a security cushion: "Because Armenia is located in the South Caucasus, and there are no friendly countries of America around. If someone mentions the name of NATO country Türkiye, it is wrong. Because Türkiye itself is a headache for NATO. Therefore, no one will be on the side of Armenia. Yes, the USA can send some weapons, ammunition, and systems to Armenia. However, considering the size and economic opportunities of Armenia, all this will be meaningless and completely useless. There is no alternative to the current situation in Armenia. It is necessary to establish relations, economic and political relations with Yerevan's neighbors. Then Armenia will have a future."

The expert also drew attention to the fact that official Moscow has not taken any serious steps in relation to Armenia. "However, we understand that Moscow has drawn a line over Pashinyan, but does not want to break relations with the Armenian people. He hopes that normal politicians will come to power in Armenia in the future and stop disrupting relations. I think that Moscow's observed inaction is conditioned by this. Although Pashinyan is an unconditional enemy of Russia, Armenia is not an enemy. According to Pashinyan, it is possible to punish Armenia, but it will not bring good results for Russia. Because Russia's goal is not to allow Armenia to bring the West into the region. It is impossible to achieve this goal by punishing Armenia," Naumov concluded.