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Egypt’s parliamentary elections not to immediately affect relations with Israel

29 November 2011 03:50 (UTC +04:00)

Baku-APA. Egyptians head to the polls on Monday for the first parliamentary elections since former President Hosni Mubarak, seen by Israel as a trustworthy ally during his 30 years’ reign, stepped down in February, APA reports quoting Xinhua.

Now that Mubarak who upheld the peace treaty between the two states despite its unpopularity in Egypt is gone, there is a growing concern in Israel that the stable ties it enjoyed during the Mubarak era is about to change.

However, analysts told Xinhua that the vote would have a limited effect on the country’s relations with Israel.

PARTY POLITICS

"One has to be careful with predictions, but the general sense is that the Freedom (and Justice) Party, which is related to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), is going to do very well," said Dr. Jonathan Spyer of the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya.

Nevertheless, Spyer pointed out that the Muslim Brotherhood is not fielding enough candidates to gain a majority in the parliament.

Even if the MB would win a large number of seats, there is still the question that if they would try to ally themselves with an Islamic or secular party to form a coalition, according to Spyer.

Dr. Michael Eppel of the University of Haifa said that "if the next government is under the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, its attitude towards Israel might be less favorable than it is today."

But Eppel argued that should the MB become a major political force, the real question that remains to be seen is whether or not the new government would take a pragmatic stance. "How big will the influence of anti-Western and anti-Israel attitudes be, or ( are they taking) a more pragmatic stand according to the interests of Egypt as a state," he said.

Eppel is concerned about the popular pressure on the Egyptian government, which may choose to show its strength by using anti- Israeli rhetoric.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Spyer pointed out that "whatever results of the parliamentary elections are, the foreign and security policy will remain in the hands of Egyptian president."

"Presidential elections are due in June 2012, and only at that point will we begin to know what Egypt’s future relations with Israel is going to look like," Spyer argued, "This (parliamentary elections) isn’t going to have any effect on foreign and security policy of any kind."

"It’s not possible to make accurate predications, but certainly it will give a sense of the extent of how this movement enjoys popular support. And in this sense it will be an indicator of what is to come," Spyer said regarding the parliamentary elections.

He said that the result depends on who will be running and how many candidates there will be.

Eppel argued that "we have to remember that the Muslim Brotherhood doesn’t have its own candidate for the presidential election."

"So this gives hope that the next president will be moderate and will maintain the national interest of Egypt to preserve peace with Israel and the Egyptian position as someone who can mediate between Israel and the Palestinians," Eppel said.

Most of the Egyptian army and the foreign ministry will try to keep a more pragmatic attitude towards Israel, but public’s anger might be pushing Egyptian-Israeli ties to an even worse situation, Eppel added.