The number of countries in tension and conflict in the Middle East continues to grow.
The list of countries whose relations have deteriorated in recent days has been supplemented by Iran and Pakistan.
It all started on January 16, when Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strikes into Pakistan without warning.
Official Tehran said the strikes hit two headquarters of the Jaysh Al-Adl (Army of Justice), which is responsible for numerous attacks on Iranian territory, while Iran respected the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Pakistan.
The Jaysh Al-Adl group consists of representatives of the Baluchis, belonging to the Sunni sect and living in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan, and is fighting for the independence of the region. The group was created in 2012. Iran also blames the group for an attack on a police station in the country's southeast in December 2023 that killed 11 police officers. Jaysh Al-Adl is recognized as a terrorist organization not only in Iran, but also in the USA, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
Official Islamabad reacted harshly to the ballistic missile strikes on Pakistani territory without warning, recalled its ambassador to Iran and declared the border between the two countries closed.
Not limited to this, Pakistan announced that on January 18 it launched Operation Mark Bar Sarmachar (Death to Militants) and attacked the positions of the Balochistan Liberation Army group in the Seravan region of the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchistan.
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said several terrorists were killed in the strike and that official Islamabad respects the territorial integrity of Iran and the two nations are fraternal.
Even a telephone conversation between the foreign ministers of Pakistan and Iran on January 17 could not prevent a response from Islamabad.
Note that the Balochistan Liberation Army group that Pakistan is targeting also consists of ethnic Balochis, but is organized from Balochis living in the Balochistan province of Pakistan, and they are engaged in an armed struggle with government forces for the creation of a Baloch state in this province. Along with Pakistan, this organization is recognized as terrorist in the United States, the European Union and China.
Taking a broad view of the issue, it appears that the tension between Islamabad and Tehran is not only related to Baloch separatism, which is observed on the border of the two countries and worries both sides. First of all, it should be noted that the events of recent months are one of the consequences of the geopolitical movements that began after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 last year. Having declared the fight with Israel to be the basis of its foreign policy doctrine, Iran, against the backdrop of ongoing fighting in the Gaza Strip, increasingly began to display aggressive rhetoric in its foreign policy. Iranian proxy forces—Hezbollah in Lebanon—are shelling Israeli territory, and the Houthis in Yemen are attacking cargo ships in the Red Sea.
On January 16, official Tehran launched ballistic missile attacks on Syria and the city of Erbil in northern Iraq.
Perhaps behind these steps is the desire of the conservative wing of the Iranian authorities to show their strength to the countries of the region. The Tehran regime's intention may also be to divert public attention from the mass protests that began and are still raging after the police killing of student Mahsa Amini in late 2022, focusing people's attention on external threats. We should not exclude the possibility of a difficult economic situation that has developed due to Western sanctions and the continuing fall in the exchange rate of the national currency, the rial, against the dollar.
But unlike Iraq, which is in a fragmented state under a certain religious and political influence of Syria and Tehran, Pakistan, a nuclear state, gave Iran not only a diplomatic, but also a military response. Perhaps the radical wing in power in Iran did not expect such a response from Pakistan, which is in a vulnerable economic situation and is preparing for federal parliamentary elections on February 8.
In this context, it is noteworthy that Iran has in recent years established close economic and political relations with Pakistan's main political rival, India. The parties have a plan to deliver goods through Iranian territory to Russia and Europe by modernizing the Iranian port of Chabahar, located in the Indian Ocean. It is no coincidence that the Indian Ministry of External Affairs also stated that it does not support Iran's strikes on Pakistani territory, but treats it with understanding.
In any case, there are no fundamental geopolitical issues between Iran and Pakistan. Therefore, the escalation of tension and its escalation into a larger military conflict is an undesirable scenario for both sides.
Continuing tensions do not bode well for neighboring countries, including Azerbaijan, including China, which is the initiator of the “One Belt, One Road” project, which runs through the territory of both countries. China's immediate reaction to this further demonstrates this.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said Beijing is ready to act as a mediator between Pakistan and Iran.
In this regard, it is quite possible that Pakistani-Iranian tensions will soon subside.
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