Although there were various opinions about the Trump-Zelenskyy-European leaders meeting held in Washington on August 18, observations, issues discussed and statements allow us to draw certain conclusions.
Zelenskyy came to the meeting prepared
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy drew conclusions from the scandalous meeting that took place at the White House in February of this year and came to the meeting this time more prepared. First of all, he changed his clothes, which irritated Trump, put on a jacket and brought his “cards” with him. Moreover, the support group consisting of European leaders also increased Zelenskyy’s self-confidence in the negotiations.
Zelenskyy's frequent praise of Trump, his thanks for his efforts to end the war, and most importantly, his non objecting to the US President's views on camera that were contrary to Ukraine's interests, paved the way for Trump to soften his attitude towards him.
Territorial concessions
As for the collective meeting, we did not hear any serious statements from European leaders. The main issue that interested everyone at the meeting was Ukraine's territorial concessions. After the meeting in Alaska, Trump generally accepted Putin's concept of "progress towards peace in exchange for the transformation of Donbass." Before the meeting at the White House, both Trump and senior members of his team actively discussed this topic in the media and on social networks, hinting that they expected concessions from Zelenskyy on this issue.
The comments made after the White House meeting suggest that Zelenskyy, along with his European allies, tried to remove the issue of territorial concessions from the agenda of the negotiations and focus on security guarantees for Ukraine. Zelenskyy’s statement that he could discuss territorial concessions with Putin coincided with Trump’s desire to arrange a meeting between the two presidents.
Trump was so pleased that Zelenskyy said he was ready to discuss territorial concessions with Putin that he called the Russian president to inform him of the decision.
Security guarantees for Ukraine
On the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine, Zelenskyy wisely did not ask Trump for weapons, but instead offered to sell billions of dollars worth of weapons to Ukraine - of course, at the expense of his European allies. Other agreements reached at the meeting regarding security guarantees should not go unnoticed. We are talking about the form of security in accordance with Article 5 of the NATO Charter (according to Article 5 of the NATO Charter, an attack on any NATO country is considered an attack on all members of the Alliance). Trump, who ruled out Ukraine's membership in NATO, announced in a statement the day after the meeting - today that some form of security guarantees would be provided to Kyiv, emphasizing the US's readiness to assist in this matter.
Trump also did not object to the deployment of armed forces by European countries in Ukraine.
Putin faces a choice
After the Washington meeting, some analysts do not hesitate to voice optimistic predictions that the end of the Ukrainian conflict is near. However, it does not seem so simple. Much depends on the steps that Russia will take in this direction. Moscow's lack of enthusiasm for ending the conflict could also undermine the results of the August 18 Washington meeting.
Although Trump and his team have announced that they have begun preparations to organize a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, it is still questionable whether this meeting will take place in the near future, or even at all.
Most likely, Moscow, citing the importance of negotiations between the delegations first in order to create conditions for positive results at this meeting, will try to gain time and achieve serious results on the battlefield in the meantime.
Because unlike Zelenskyy, who declared that he is ready to meet with Putin anytime, anywhere, the Russian President does not seem happy with such a meeting.
The proposals voiced by Russia already give reason to think so. Information has spread that Putin informed Trump of his desire to meet with Zelenskyy in Moscow. There is also information that Zelenskyy has already agreed to this proposal. The fact that Putin brought up such a proposal, knowing that Zelenskyy would naturally not agree to a meeting in Moscow, indicates that the process will not go smoothly.
Now Putin is faced with a difficult choice. Considering that Trump has punished everyone who opposes his plans, the Russian side may face severe sanctions if it refuses this meeting and puts forward unacceptable conditions. It is worth recalling one fact that after the scandalous February meeting with Zelenskyy in the White House, the export of arms and ammunition from the United States to Ukraine was suspended for a while, which seriously weakened Ukraine's air defenses.
Conclusion
The Washington meeting showed that Trump and Zelenskyy are interested in a quick end to the war. The European leaders who participated in the meeting - those who dragged Ukraine into war with Russia - pinned their hopes only on the United States and Trump.
The main conclusion of the meeting is related to the extent to which Russia is interested in ending the war. Zelenskyy, who accepted almost all the conditions that Trump brought after the meeting with Putin in Alaska, declared his readiness to meet with the Russian President without any preconditions. Now much depends on Russia's further steps.
Any step by Moscow that would disrupt the process will test Trump's patience. It will be very interesting to see how the US leader will react to this.
Ilgar Khudiyev
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