Political

Home page

Political

France is doomed to come to terms with new reality in South Caucasus - ANALYSIS

18 December 2023 18:50 (UTC +04:00)

The reality of Azerbaijan restoring its territorial integrity still does not give comfort to some Western countries.

France especially differs among these countries. Official Paris, which always has a special attitude towards Armenia, was seriously worried either after the tripartite agreement signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia on November 10, 2020, or after the local anti-terrorist measures implemented by Azerbaijan on September 19-20, 2023, it increased its diplomatic activity in the region and expressed its open sympathy for Armenia.

For example, on December 7, 2020, approximately 1 month after the end of the 44-day Patriotic War, Ambassador of France to Azerbaijan Zacharie Gross posted on Twitter (now X) as follows:

“France will continue to support international law, UN Security Council, and principles of OSCE Group of Minsk, including the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan,” the post read.

However, in August of 2022, despite there being an official invitation, the Ambassadors of the U.S. and France did not go to the event held in Shusha. Of course, Ambassador Zacharie Gross, who did not go to Shusha, did not make this decision himself and acted on the instruction coming from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of France.

What causes dissonance is the fact that the 5th Republic, which calls itself the cradle of democracy in Europe and declares that it recognizes international law, does not match its words with its deeds.

This dissonance is because on November 25, 2020, the French Senate adopted a resolution calling on the government to recognize the "independence" of the former so-called regime in Garabagh, in December 2021, Valery Pécressin, who was a candidate for the French presidential election from the "Republic" party at the time, and several senators and the MP's illegal visit to Garabagh without the official permission of Baku is strengthened by the statements of several city mayors and politicians against the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, supporting separatism and occupation, including the mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo.

Those statements are made even today, France still does not accept the restoration of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and the creation of a new geopolitical reality in the South Caucasus.

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev touched on this issue on December 15 at the meeting held in connection with the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - COP29 next year in our country. The head of state said that some Western countries, especially France, are worried about Azerbaijan's restoration of its territorial integrity.

"Some Western countries, among them, of course, traditionally France, are not going to put up with this. However, the international community already sees that even Armenia has come to terms with this situation, and the holding of the COP29 conference shows this once again. However, some political leaders in France try to be more Armenian than Armenians. However, they will also have to accept this situation," the President said.

Indeed, France is looking for a new escalation in the region with its destructive policy. Official Paris has started selling arms to official Yerevan to ignite a new conflict and become one of the geopolitical actors in the South Caucasus through Armenia.

The delivery of 24 units of "Bastion" armored vehicles to Armenia, the announcement of the delivery of 26 more, the sale of 3 units of "GM200" radars, and the signing of a memorandum of understanding on the future supply of "Mistral" short-range air defense systems are part of this plan.

It seems that official Paris does not accept the new geopolitical reality that has emerged in the South Caucasus after 2020 and is trying to change the balance of forces in the region. But to change this reality created by Azerbaijan, official Paris has neither the military, nor the political and economic potential, nor does Armenia have the power to start a new escalation. Official Yerevan, including Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, understands well that the regional military-political balance is not fragile enough to change with 50 armored vehicles, 3 radar systems, or other weapons that will be provided in the future. On the contrary, since November 2020, the balance of forces between Azerbaijan and Armenia has changed once and for all, and this difference is increasing every day.

Nikol Pashinyan, unlike France, understands well that the next attempt of aggression against Azerbaijan will question the existence of Armenia as a state, and therefore he agreed with the current situation.

A conclusion is drawn from this that France's diplomatic attacks against Azerbaijan do not gain anything and seriously harm its regional influence and influence. Sooner or later, France is doomed to come to terms with the new reality in the South Caucasus. But it also means that France will lose useful opportunities for cooperation while the reconciliation process continues.