Political

Political

In 2010, STRATFOR believes that stand-off in the Caucasus will set deeply in

14 January 2010 14:01 (UTC +04:00)

Baku â€“ APA. The year 2009 was incredibly interesting in the Caucasus for a number of reasons. Though much of the worldâ€™s attention was invested in watching the fallout from the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, a status-quo has set in between Moscow and Tbilisi. But it was the developments between Turkey and Russia that give signs of trends to come.
STRATFOR has forecast that in the next decade that Turkey will return to being one of the global powers with its key geographic position, strong economy and consolidated government. Currently, a transformation is taking place in Turkey in which Ankara is testing out its influence in a number of regions: Central Asia, Southeastern Europe, the Middle East and the Caucasus.
It is in the Caucasus that Turkey was expected to move first and its attempt to change its relationship with Armenia was a bold choice for a first step, but was encouraged by Russia to do so. Russia has been watching the changes taking place in Turkey in recent years and planned to take advantage of a stronger Turkey in two ways: to create a closer relationship with the budding regional power of Turkey and also to use Turkeyâ€™s resurgence to tie certain states (Armenia and Azerbaijan) in the Caucasus more to Russia.
This is not to say that Russia designed 2009â€™s events for all parties, but instead set a series of events in motion that worked all out to Russiaâ€™s advantage.
Turkey was testing to see if its relationshipâ€”the so-called bonds of brotherhoodâ€”with Azerbaijan was solid enough that it could expand its influence in the Caucasus and form solid ties with Armenia. Turkey misjudged and Russia took advantage. Russia encouraged Turkey to restore ties with Armenia and mediated the talks. Meanwhile, Russia was assuring Azerbaijan that it would protect Bakuâ€™s interests should Turkey restore ties with Armenia. Thirdly, Russia has continued its consolidation politically, economically and socially inside of Armenia.
As the events unfolded with Turkey beginning talks with Armenia, Russia also fueled Azerbaijanâ€™s concern that Turkey wasnâ€™t looking out for Baku. The result of this was a break in relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan on political, social and energy levels and Russia filling that vacuum with Azerbaijan. The situation became more serious towards the end of 2009 when Azerbaijan reportedly began preparations to intervene militarily in the disputed land with Armenia of Nagorno-Karabakh should Turkey fulfill its restoration of ties with Armenia.
Simultaneously, Russia kept Armenia from fulfilling its negotiations with Turkey for the restoration of relations.
So at the end of 2009, Ankara has not only misjudged the gravity of its influence in the Caucasus by losing relations with Baku and not & implementing them with Yerevan; but Turkey has in effect increased Russiaâ€™s influence instead. Turkey now has halted its actions with Armenia and is reassessing what its next move will be concerning all players.
In 2010, STRATFOR believes that this stand-off will set deeply in. Turkey attempted to gain more influence in the Caucasus and ended up losing what it had before. Ankara will not want to act boldly again on this until it is sure the outcome will be better. But Russia is ready to counter Turkey again should it try to increase its presence in the Caucasus. In 2010, Russia will be having a year of serious consolidations in many of its former Soviet countriesâ€”Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan. This is a trend that the rest of the former Soviet statesâ€”especially those in the Caucasusâ€”will be watching closely and deciding if they are next on Moscowâ€™s list.
The analysis is published in the framework of cooperation between APA (Azeri Press Agency) and STRATFOR Global Intelligence Company (www.stratfor.com).